The Transparent RRSP: Market Analysis

No action was taken the week of March 27

I have been busy looking for good picks. I found one, but it’s too expensive for the RRSP. If I had more money in this account, I would have bought shares of Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE Inc., ticker symbol BCE.TO). Instead, I bought BCE for my TFSA. It had a nice setup of sideways trading starting from November with a tighter consolidation forming this week. It also pays a great dividend.

Bell is my service provider for internet connection. Thankfully, I don’t have the headache of dealing with them, JP does all of that. He has the patience and persistence required to get the service we need. This week he also managed to get our monthly rate reduced – yet again!

I’m not too concerned with how this stock moves in price as this is a pricier stock. If it goes up, then I’m glad I got some shares at a lower price when I did. If it goes down, then I’ll wait for a good time to take on more shares. Whether it goes up or down a lot in price, I will always wait for a setup before getting more shares. That’s just how I roll.


Now it’s time for some market analysis. I’ll use my favourite ETF, the XIC, to figure out what’s going on with the Canadian stock market.

xic

XIC stock charts on freestockcharts.com

1. The daily chart shows the market has been moving sideways for all of March. If you look at the trade volume, you can see that there has been a bit of a tug of war between buyers and sellers.

I believe this push and pull happens because people get nervous when the market feels a little toppy; as I said early on this month, it’s gone straight up for much too long. I wanted to finally see a bit of a pull back in the market because I expected people to be taking profits after a six-month run. I’d much rather take new positions after the market sanely resets itself than to follow a euphoric run that doesn’t stop or pause for air.

2. The weekly chart provides a cleaner and clearer view of March’s action. I like bigger time frames because they have less noise than smaller time frame charts. The candles on this chart cover a wider price range than previous candles. Wider candles mean more volatility and uncertainty. The volume week-to-week shows buying, selling, buying, selling, then more buying in this final week of March.

There could still be yet a further correction in early April. Whether this happens or not, what I’d like to see is the price range tightening up before the market goes up again. Tighter trading ranges typically mean greater consensus among investors. The volume week-to-week should also be mostly green to signify more buying is happening.

3. The monthly chart finally gave me the candlestick bar ‘pivot’ that I wanted. It went below February’s price low of $24.32 and down to $24.24 this week. I like pivots because they’re a more distinguished correction on a price chart. I like to think of them as a likely turning point. 

The arrow on the monthly chart points to a lot more trade volume this month than all the previous months. Interestingly, the last time it saw trade volume to this level was in March last year. This big volume bar is green, so there was mostly buying this month. Based on my rough observations in the market day-to-day, I saw a lot of accumulation action in the metals, particularly in gold.

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Will the market go down again? Yes, but I think it will in the summer. Historically, the market either stays where it’s at for April, or it goes up a bit more. This generally happens because of earnings season and it’s the investors’ final run at making profits before things slow down in the summer. Also, with all that buying this month, if gold makes a bullish run for it, this will also send the market up.

As the saying goes, “Sell in May and go away.” Something out of the ordinary will have to occur to break this typical cycle.

 

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