No action was taken the week of May 1
I did an extensive search and didn’t find any good candidates for the RRSP. I think that once we see a more substantial correction in the market followed by some stabilization, we’ll see more options.
Chart 1 is the weekly chart of the XIC ETF. It didn’t budge much last week and traded sideways for the most part. However, as you can see from the arrow I drew, it had some strong selling as indicated by the red trade volume bar.
Chart 2 shows the monthly chart of XIC. We finished close to where we opened. The arrow shows that overall for the month of April, there was more buying. As we’ve seen from a shorter timeframe of the weekly chart, there was heavy selling last week. Well, investors like a strong finish.
Already in this week alone, we traded lower than the month of April’s lows. This means investors are getting cautious and losing a bit of confidence. They’re selling shares, taking profits, and holding out on new opportunities – and if investors do trade, it might be with fewer than normal shares to reduce risk. No market can go straight up, so this isn’t anything to get too nervous about.
Chart 3 is the monthly chart of the SPY for the US market’s S&P 500 Index. The arrow identifies trading in March. You can see there was heavier selling in March. April had more buying than selling, however, it wasn’t able to trade higher than it did in March. All week it has been trading sideways. It might still have a positive May, but watch the volume and look for signs of less buying.
Chart 4 is the monthly chart of QQQ ETF for the Nasdaq 100 Index. The tech sector, especially the semiconductors, have been extremely strong since last summer. May will mean the seventh month up on a strong move. The arrow shows that April had a huge move up, but with lesser buying than in March. Are the Qs losing steam? We shall see…
There is naturally lower trade volume going into the summer months, starting in May. I will be keeping a close eye on the weekly and daily charts to look for more immediate signs of a reversal in the markets.
Last week I finally finished reading Michael Lewis’ hugely entertaining book, Liar’s Poker. I was sad to be done, but I feel like the story hasn’t ended because I’m living it through my own trading and from watching the markets. There is a story behind every trade and each investment decision. He skillfully addressed throughout the book how the human element of emotion is what drives markets.
This true story was about Lewis’ introduction into Wall Street as a bond salesman for Saloman Brothers, a securities firm. Every successful sale was done by convincing an investor that what he was selling them was going to be worth more later on. This sounds conniving and this book reads more like a humourous confessional as Lewis grew increasingly conflicted the more successful he became.
Even though this book focusses on the bond market, it translates the same way for stocks and any other security for that matter. Optimism is what drives the markets and allows them to thrive and continue. Pessimism morphs into fear and will make most investors regret their decisions and jump ship into something else.
All year so far, I’ve been providing you with analyses of the ups and downs of markets and making shorter-term projections based on price moves and the corresponding trade volume. These moves occur because of optimism and pessimism. The reason why I trade is because I’m generally an optimistic person and my long-term view is that the markets will always keep going up because I believe that most people are inherently optimistic. That is why, despite all these tales of glory and failures that come out of Wall Street, it’s still around. The markets aren’t going anywhere and I’m happy to believe that more of us are getting involved.