Some Predictions: The Markets and the Big Fight

The Markets 

Up and down charts

Price charts for ETFs: SPY, QQQ, XIC, and GDX on freestockcharts.com

The US markets have only started their decline since the last month. The Canadian market has been going down since late February. That is no surprise since it had gone up for an entire year since February 2016. The gold sector has been starting to trend up since mid-July. Whether gold breaks out or just jogs sideways is hard to tell at this point.

The trade volume in the US markets has been very high this summer. A lot of selling happening, particularly in the tech sector. Tech had been going up since last summer, so like the Canadian market, after a year of bullish trading, it was bound to sell off.

I think the US markets are going to continue trending downward until the end of September, maybe even going into October. If the selling is heavy enough, it could trigger a longer bear market until the new year. If this happens, it’ll be tough on the Canadian market as it will only get weaker.

For the time being, I’m going to be really reserved about buying anything. I would like to see a substantial correction in the US markets before feeling confident in the next uptrend.


Mayweather vs. McGregor

Any predictions? No doubt, there is a lot of betting on this fight! I don’t believe in betting on sports. Instead, I just argue over who I think will win. My brothers and I got into a fun debate over Mayweather and McGregor. Two out the three of us siblings think that Mayweather will win, though we’re all kind of rooting for McGregor. It’s just really weird that one is a pure boxer and the other is an MMA fighter. McGregor really is the wild card.

I grew up watching a lot of boxing and wrestling. Eventually, I started watching UFC, Pride, and K1 fighting. One time, ages ago, I had a short stint working with a K1 promoter in Japan. I was in my element talking to all the fighters and getting an inside look into that world. I hung out with them all for a few days, some of whom I’d recognized from TV: Mike Bernardo, Jan the Giant, Alexey Ignashov, and Canada’s own Mike McDonald and Gary Goodridge. Some of these guys started out boxing and eventually got into other forms of fighting, especially since there was money to be made.

The day of the tournament, things got intense. At ringside, I could hear every punch land and every kick connect. These fighters, my new buddies, were really hurting each other. Whether they won or lost, everyone got hurt. After that, I couldn’t watch fights with the same enthusiasm.

Well, JP twisted my arm and got us tickets to watch tonight’s fight at our local Cineplex’s VIP theatre. I do think that Mayweather has a better shot at winning unless McGregor can get a few really hard punches in early enough. If he can’t, I think Mayweather will tire him out until he goes in for the kill. It’ll be bad if McGregor accidentally resorts to MMA and disqualifies the fight. We’ll soon find out!

2 thoughts on “Some Predictions: The Markets and the Big Fight

  1. I limit my comment to SPY, looking charts four different time frame , the Monthly 5 year chart showing two years of strong up trend starting Aug 2013 at (120) going to (201) 2015 March fallowed by a one year rest to 2016 March which also was (201) then broke out to the upside reaching (247) 2017 July. and now sitting at (244.5) Up trend is in effect and not been violated, all MA pointing up, Volume from 2016 Jan to date declining at the rate the price is rising. no early indication of TOP forming, 30% retracement of the last move would be to (229) level.
    The three year Weekly, chart showing one and a half year sideway move to 201 at 2016 July, when the new move to the upside began to (247) end of July 2017, all MA pointing up and current price seating at 244.5 close to the 20 Week MA. Volume slightly declining in the last year SPY made a higher hi and a higher low, no singe of starting a topping formation.
    One year Weekly, showing side way move ending mid Nov 2016 at (214) and a steady move up whit two small rest period,currently near support (241 / 242) which have held we had a slight violation of the 13 MA and again higher high and close to a higher low, if SPY turns south here we could be looking of a right shoulder of a head and shoulder top and if break below (241) occurs the nine month uptrend will be broken then the lower support at (231 /236) is possible and afforded a good entry.
    Six month Daily is most interesting as it showing, March to end of May sideways move, breakout from that at(237.5) to (247.8) at mid Aug where the last decline started by by breaking the 13 MA shortly after that the 50 MA, making lower highs and lower lows except the last low was not a lower low, the four month uptrend have held, the last seven week price action printed a dome, 13 MA sloping down the 50 MA flattening and the 13 MA about to cross down. if the support at (240) will not hold we could be looking at (230) which would be a 100% retracement of the last five month gain, could that happen ? yes but not do to underlying fundamentals but rather some major political event is most likely. Long term SPY looking good, picking good entry is always difficult, is a bigger dip coming ? for short term, wait and see, for long term say ten year get in start collecting dividend, but patient is always prudent.
    Steve.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Thanks, Steve. Nice to hear from you!

    All good points. I do agree that the uptrend is quite strong. It could take fundamental shifts to trigger that next correction, or maybe enough people will start to take profits due to higher selling in August, we’ll see.

    The SPY’s monthly has not been violated and its last pivot was in November of last year, which is a good run. Yes, most recent support levels are at the March/April zone of this year — a correction to this point will encourage a healthy resumption of an uptrend. That’s all I want, a correction on the monthly chart at the very least. I will be happier, though, if it could pull back down to 235. I feel that if that happens in September, then everyone will be ready for buying season come October/November.

    If there’s sideways indecision/volatility in September/October and no proper correction occurs, I think it’ll be yucky trading until the end of the year and the charts will eventually look like they did in 2015-2016.

    Like

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