The Market Dumps

 

Dailies

The SPY, QQQ, DIA, and XIC ETFs on freestockcharts.com

While some investors have been freaking out, I’ve been casually checking the market and my portfolios. Is this the correction I’d been impatiently waiting for?

Looking at the daily charts of the SPY, the Qs, the Diamonds, and the XIC, you can see a few major things happening here. A big precipitous move often creates another one. Look at the XIC on Monday, Jan 29. It gapped down and just kept going. Something similar happened to the Dow on Tuesday. While there was some defending going on, it still broke its trend on Friday. The SPY and Qs had a huge down day like the others on Friday; however, their uptrends are still intact. It will be interesting to see if there’s a bit of a bounce before these go down even more and break their shorter-term trends.

 

Weeklies

When we pan out and inspect the weekly charts, it’s hard not to notice the glaring red candle on the XIC. Whoa, Canada! In one week, it wiped out all the gains made since mid-October. The other charts only came down past the gains from the last week or two. If this is the start of the move down for the US market, it might be wise to take some profits off your US stocks before they correct even further.

Monthlies

As for me, I’m just hanging onto everything and waiting for my next buying opportunity. In fact, I transferred more cash into my registered accounts so that I’ll be ready when I see a good trade is on.

I’m noticing some beautiful monthly corrections on the weed stocks. You can bet that I will be scaling into these before their next big move. If you have difficulty selecting which weed stocks to buy, then just buy the ETF, HMMJ. You can visit this link to get more information on the fund and its stock holdings. I created a watchlist on freestockcharts.com with all the stocks that are in the HMMJ ETF. I like to cruise through the charts and check out which ones are helping the portfolio or weighing it down.

Stock Picks

selloffs

Market ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and XIC on freestockcharts.com

The US market is making me nervous as the charts get higher with bigger candles. At some point, it’s gotta sell off, right? I notated on the charts the last months where the most selling happened.

Market cycles can either be four months for the shorter term, or eight to ten months. The SPY and DIA show their last major sell-offs were in March of last year. The Canadian market, on the other hand, looks like it could be halfway through its current move up. It could pause for a bit at the current highs before continuing its move. If the US market pulls back, it’ll be interesting to see how the Canadian market will react.

It’s been a hectic week for me and I’m gearing to go back to work tomorrow. I managed to do a quick search and I found some decent charts to check out:

  • BB.TO
  • PD.TO
  • ACBN.TO (watch for a consolidation setup on the daily chart)
  • ENB.TO

Be sure to check the sector and do your necessary research and take the right amount of risk so that you can feel confident in your trades/investments.


Oh, and happy new year!

 

The Transparent RRSP: Breakout, Breakdown

The week of December 18
  • I bought 35 shares of TPK.V at $6.55 on December 18. It cost $229.25 plus $0.35 in commissions. There is $11.86 in cash left in the RRSP account.
TPK

TPK.V price chart on freestockcharts.com

Last Monday, I put in a limit order to buy 35 shares of TPK.V at $6.55 and it was filled at that price. I was so glad as it went straight up right after…until it did a reversal on Wednesday. It’s now back to my entry price.

I did the above screenshot the day I bought the shares. I commented on the monthly chart that this stock could trade sideways even longer. Sometimes with these bottoming patterns, you’ll find that there are a few false takeoffs before it really takes off. My hope is that it continues to trade sideways for longer, offering even more entry opportunities to add to the position. That way, if and when it does take off, the upward move will have a better chance of being sustained even longer.

The market didn’t budge much this week and I don’t expect it will next week. Trade volume between Christmas and the new year is usually quite low. There might be a bit of selling, but I don’t plan on making any trade decisions within the next week.


Already people are posting with glee that they’re on vacation. I wish you all happy and safe holidays! I hope to catch up again next week when I’ll be in Vancouver. 

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Travel Costs

 

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Playa Beisanz

 

Total Cost of the Best Trip Ever: $2400


Total Airfare for Two: $770

This covered two roundtrip tickets with Copa Airlines from November 28 – December 5. We booked through Canadian Fares online. I know that this was likely cheaper because the dates fell before peak season.

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Meal on Copa Airlines

Copa Air was impressive – flying with them took me back to how things were before food and alcohol became additional. We were shocked when they came out with the drinks – including alcohol – near the start and end of the flight. I got so nostalgic that I just went for the guava juice – something I hadn’t had since I was a kid. Then came the meals! I had to pinch myself. I haven’t eaten anything on a flight without whipping out my credit card in years.

Another plus side when booking with Copa: When you leave Costa Rica, you apparently have to pay a departure tax of $29 USD. This fee was included in the airfare. There are a few airlines that will automatically include this fee in the price and Copa is one of them. Otherwise, if you don’t have US cash or the Costa Rican equivalent to pay at the airport, you pay this tax at the booth by a cash advance on your credit card. Oh, and we didn’t have to pay for our checked baggage.

The only downside to this airline was having Barry Manilow’s song, “Copacabana,” earworm its way into my head for the entire flight going there and back.


Park ‘n’ Fly: $185

Our flight was at 8 AM. It made the most sense for us to stay at a hotel where we could park our car for eight days while we were away. With such an early departure and late arrival, I appreciated being shuttled to and from the airport. We usually book our park ‘n’ fly using points, but this was more of a last minute booking and we couldn’t swing it this time around.


Manulife Travel Insurance: $48

This covered the two of us. Neither of us is covered by any insurance plans at work, many of which also includes basic travel insurance.

There were times in the past when I thought travel insurance was a waste of money…until the one time I needed it and it was totally worth it. The insurance covered all the costly medical bills for this one unexpected incident.


Total cost of Airbnb: $327

We went on this trip for three reasons: 1) We always wanted to go to Costa Rica, 2) We wanted to have a warm getaway, and 3) JP and I are considering buying property somewhere nice and warm.

We decided to check out a place that was easy enough to get to near a lot of beaches. That way, if we bought a property that was accessible and attractive to many tourists, it would be easy to rent out on Airbnb. We settled for the town of Herradura, which is near the locals hangout, Herradura Beach, the bachelor party capital, Jaco Beach, and the surfer-covered Hermosa Beach. We booked a house through AirBnB which was a quick drive from all those places.

It was our first time booking anything through Airbnb. What an experience! We made friends with the neighbours and had them over on most nights where we shared food and drinks. They even took us on a hike through a river to these local waterfalls. They showed us around some resorts, beaches, bars, etc. I’m sure that’s not what usually happens with Airbnb and that this was more of a unique opportunity to make new friends.


Car rental: $258

We booked through Dollar in Costa Rica ahead of time, snatching the best online deal we could find. There are a number of car rental desks at the airport where they shuttle you to their actual locations off-site, as there is no spot for them at the San Jose airport.

We got a basic car with basic insurance. They tried to pressure JP into getting the premium insurance plan, but he wouldn’t budge. The guy became a bit of a prick after we said no! Apparently, all the cars in Costa Rica are standard. (Really?) The driving there is more aggressive in that there is no room for hesitation. JP really liked driving there!


Duty-Free Booze: $98

20171209_1330461036299762.jpgOn the way to Costa Rica, our stopover was at the Panama Airport. The next time we head to this area, we are definitely going to Panama! Well, we were drawn to all the duty-free stores glowing with enormous bottles of rum and tequila. We didn’t know how hard/easy it would be to find alcohol in CR when we arrived in the evening. We shopped around and bought a bottle of rum ($17 USD) and one of tequila ($24 USD) equal to $53.76 CAD. On the way back to Canada, we bought two big bottles of rum ($34 USD = $44.35 CAD). We just knew we couldn’t find bottles of this size and price back home. We paid with credit card both times.


Cash for food, gas, etc: $588 = ₡240,000

We read that most places only took cash. Credit cards could be used at more expensive places and you could still be charged extra transaction fees for using it. We figured to bring about $600 worth of CR Colones. We ordered the currency from our bank. The exchange rate with them was much better than at an exchange house. We just had to wait almost a week for the money to arrive (which came the day before we left!).

On our way to our accommodation, we stopped over at some food stands and stores to load up with enough chow to tide us over the next few days. We bought tropical fruits, tomatoes, beans, nuts, and rice. We nearly fell over after we figured that the few bags we purchased amounted to $80. The food prices in Costa Rica rival Japan’s. I mean, I have never tasted more exquisite avocados and pineapples, but come on! However, alcohol is much less expensive there. On most days we ate a lot of fruit and made our own meals. The place we stayed at had a great kitchen where JP whipped up the best dishes.

We allowed ourselves a couple of extravagant days when we bought day passes to hang out at a nearby resort which gave us access to the poolside bar/restaurant and beach. A pass cost us $30 USD each.

After a week in Costa Rica, we blew through most of our cash. We had enough to refill the gas tank before returning the car to the rental agency. With all the driving we did, including a day trip to Manuel Antonio in the south, we used only one tank of gas. Filling it up cost around $45 CAD. We gave the remainder of our colones to the shuttle driver who took us to the airport.


Roaming: $96

We paid $10 a day for data. We needed to navigate a lot on Google maps. Fun fact: They don’t use addresses in Costa Rica! Everyone uses landmarks. There were a couple of days when we didn’t need data, but I forgot to put my phone on airplane mode before midnight.  Before leaving, I also had to make a phone call from Canada to the caretaker of the house to arrange for the key exchange.


If you added the food we bought at the airport while waiting to depart in Canada, Panama, and Costa Rica, it comes to another $25 CAD. All told that is about $2400 or $1200 per person. Not bad for one of the most incredible trips I have ever taken. We went to four different beaches, witnessed the most stunning sunsets, saw so much wildlife, made new friends, and learned so much about that amazing country. Would we consider buying property there? Claro que si!

 

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Playa Herradura

 

The Transparent RRSP: Vacay

The week of November 27
  • I deposited $150 into the RRSP ahead of December. There is $351.89 cash in the RRSP account.

JP and I are going away for a week to Costa Rica (we’re going to the Pacific side). We decided to only bring our tablet and phones. Neither of us has plans to trade while we’re away. Our main focus is to relax, enjoy the warm weather, check out the real estate situation there, and read and swim at the beach. I might squeeze in some study time whenever I can. Derivatives and options have my brain turned in on itself – to take a week off could mean excruciating reviewing when I return.

The airfare was too hard to turn down: $770 CAD for both our tickets! Yes, we’re travelling at a time when the weather isn’t totally unbearable in Ontario yet. We do, however, plan to go to Florida in late February. That’s usually when the cabin fever is at its most intense and could use a warm disruption. Before I take off, I must, of course, look at the markets.


 

November markets

SPY, QQQ, DIA, XIU ETF charts on freestockcharts.com

 

I don’t know how the market will trade after the US Thanksgiving holiday. December could be positive because of a stronger retail sector around this time. The bearish correction in the fall that I was bracing/hoping for never came. (And that is why we trade the trend, even if we don’t believe it’s still there.)

The trade volume in the US markets seems to be coming down while the prices are going up. The confluence of those two factors often means that: 1) savvy investors start to take profits, and 2) the public starts asking those investors if it’s a good time to buy Apple. The best thing to do is wait for 3) to happen, which is an actual correction.

I was in the Caribbean on my first and last cruise in early 2015 when this happened:

Caribbean

XIC ETF on freestockcharts.com

When JP and I checked our email for the most expensive 10 minutes of our lives, we also checked the markets. At the time, we were only day trading, which meant we were holding no positions in our accounts. Although we weren’t losing money, we figured good opportunities would be short-lived. We were concerned about entering a more hostile trading environment in which small fish like us would get eaten by the bigger, well-funded fish.

After we returned and got our sea legs back, we looked at Canadian companies that traded on both Canadian and US stock exchanges. We discovered they were CHEAP. We bought just a few to hold long term and had a gangbuster year. I doubt the market will do that in the week that we’re gone. Perhaps next January?


I have some stock charts worth checking out:

  • FIRE.V (New and risky, but cheap. Take fewer shares.)
  • IMH.V (Same as above.)
  • TCW.TO
  • SSL.TO (I already have this in my RRSP.)
  • SMF.TO

Please check the company, the sector, the earnings, the market, and the fundamentals that you think are important. Always do your due diligence to trade with confidence while respecting your risk tolerance. I do think that the market could pull back early in the new year. You could wait until then before buying or take fewer shares now and more later.

‘Tis the Season to Spend Wisely

Holiday Shopping 2

Make a shopping list and start early

This is the time of year when the shopping frenzy begins; what follows is the eating and drinking. It’s all a big winter feast, after all! The easiest thing to do is close your eyes and just run with it knowing that in the new year, you can promise to make amends to your suffering bank account and bulging waistline. This frustrating cycle happens each year for so many of us.

I started doing my Christmas shopping about two months ago. Beforehand, I created a rough shopping list. I was able to keep an eye out for when these items went on sale. Seasonal items, like fudge, are typically more abundant and therefore cheaper closer to Christmas. I’m okay with getting these in December. This is a saner and more budget-friendly way to shop. It’s an easier way to monitor spending and not lose sight of financial goals. 

I’m not always this ready and organized. Last year was unusually busy for me. I only managed to do a quarter of my shopping online ahead of the holidays. The rest I bought at Metrotown and Downtown Vancouver the few days leading up to Christmas. For anyone who lives in Greater Vancouver, you know that these shopping areas are already super busy on a slow day. Big crowds mean it takes forever to get anywhere. Buying presents at the last minute left me feeling stressed out and under pressure. I was exhausted and frazzled by the end of it. The part I dreaded most was returning home and having to add up all my receipts. The final total caused me enough grief and gave me the motivation to plan ahead this year.

I know that a lot of people are drawn to the bustle of holiday shopping. The inviting Christmas displays that retailers put up invoke warm fuzzy feelings of generosity and make you want to give to others as well as yourself. A lot of awesome things go on sale at this time. We just have to remember that sales happen all year round. It’s not the only time that we can do our Christmas shopping. Although I handled last year’s Christmas differently than other years, I am aware that I’m prone to making bad, desperate choices if I don’t plan ahead. 

I’ve got some big financial goals that I want to follow through with over the next year. I can’t let overspending in one season delay my long-term goals. I recognize that I typically spend more this time of year, but the important part is that I budgeted for it.


Stock Talk

I keep saying this like a broken record: I find this toppy market quite dodgy to trade in. I usually can tell when my best trading ideas are higher risk, lower odds. I did, however, still look through the market. Here’s a list of stocks with decent charts:

  • UR.TO
  • POT.TO
  • BB.TO (Aggressive entry for a possible swing trade.)
  • CIX.TO
  • G.TO
  • WPM.TO

It looks like the precious metal charts are starting to shape up, although I’m just not interested trading the metals right now. Weed stocks have been getting a lot of recent action. As tempting as it is to jump into these, I would wait until they settle down and consolidate before buying. I’m watching and waiting for these to take shape again, so I’ll keep you all posted on new trade ideas for weed stocks. I might still trade some of the stocks listed above, but I’d take fewer shares and keep my outlook shorter term.

 

 

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Taking Some Action

The week of November 6
  • I didn’t do anything for the RRSP. There is currently $194.64 of cash in the account.

I did, however, pass my Technical Analysis exam. I certainly didn’t do as well as I wanted to though! I carried on by buying some shares of H.TO and ATZ.TO for my TFSA. I already own these stocks in the TFSA so I was just scaling into what looked like some (aggressive) buying opportunities. I also signed up for the Derivatives Fundamentals & Options Licensing Course and the Futures Licensing Course. (Talk about intense content!) I hope to finish these courses early in the new year.


I’m still not a fan of this market and entering any new positions makes me nervous. I am considering making a move this week, though, depending on how my idea performs alongside the market.

TA2

TA.TO price chart on freestockcharts.com

The daily and weekly charts aren’t great for TA.TO; however, the monthly is appealing to me. It’s making higher lows and demonstrating a trading range that is tightening. This could lead to a really good long-term trading opportunity with so much room to move into the upside. I wouldn’t mind owning more shares of this stock should this move actually occur.

Last Thursday and Friday experienced heavier selling in the U.S. and Canadian markets. If the selling continues and the market starts to correct this week, I’ll be watching this stock to see how it performs against the market. TA is in the energy sector which has been showing more strength than other sectors. If energy keeps going, scaling into this could be a good idea.

I would only scale in with a few shares (5 to 15) as I think the market will still endure a larger correction. I don’t know if energy’s strength will outlast or outperform the overall market correction. There are times when the right thing to do is sit on your hands and wait, while other times you should take full advantage of great opportunities. I feel that right now, I should find some balance in taking some action with little risk as opposed to doing nothing.