Trading this Market

On Monday, JP went through all the Canadian stocks and gave me a list to check out. I went through it and thought the following were great charts:

  • RME.TO
  • FRU.TO (A royalty company.)
  • LCS.TO (A fund)

The next day, he asked me which one(s) I was going to buy. I told him none of them. He couldn’t believe I was just going to sit on a bunch of cash without investing it. Of course, I had some explaining to do. It was very simple: I didn’t like the market. I figured the market was going to offer hokey bullishness all week which it did, ending with a big hoorah day on Friday.

 

Market Monthlies

The XIU, SPY, QQQ, and DIA ETFs on freestockcharts.com

Here are the monthly charts for the Canadian XIU ETF, and the U.S. ETFs: the SPY (S&P 500), the QQQ (the NASDAQ), and the DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). There are seven trading days left in this month. If we close at new highs with lower volume, then I will happily wait for a correction next month.

I noted on the charts the months when we last saw a correction or a reset. On the DIA chart, I put a star over March 2017. Even though there wasn’t a proper sell-off/ correction, it consolidated and traded sideways for the following three months, which is often a good setup for another run.

Out of all of them, Canada’s XIU looks the best. If the U.S. markets undergo a correction, then trading Canadian stocks could be the next best play. I’d keep a close eye on the Canadian financial stocks, though, to see whether they reset or have a substantial sell-off that could weigh down the Canadian market.

For the rest of the week, JP kept asking me for my contribution of picks in return. I flat out declared I’d rather sit on cash than to buy anything right now. (Honestly, I was too lazy to look, but we both knew that.) He agreed that although the market looks overbought, sector rotation could keep it churning and that unless something fundamental changes in world economics (like a big war), we’re going to keep going.

I found some charts worth watching over the next week or two:

  • CCO.TO (Needs better setups on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.)
  • MX.TO (Could tighten up on the monthly, but decent daily and weekly charts.)
  • ALA.TO (Nice monthly, but it went up a lot already on the daily and weekly.)
  • ATZ.TO (I own this already. This must set up on all timeframes.)
  • H.TO (I own this already. The monthly chart is meh.)
  • DRT.TO (I own this already. The weekly isn’t that clean.)

JP’s picks definitely look better than mine. However, I feel these are worth watching as they had more recent corrections on the monthly timeframe. None of these have great patterns on all their daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. I find that often when the pickings are slim, we’re due for a correction. By the time the correction or reset comes around, these picks could be even tighter. That’s the benefit of having cash ready and waiting in your account: you’ll be ready to go once the best opportunities are there. You can always afford to be patient.

 

 

 

 

 

Couples and Money Management

In the last month or so, JP and I have been revisiting our life goals. Since relocating and finding work, we now have a better grip on our financial situation and therefore can make better projections on our finances.

We basically wrote down our goals in order of importance and plotted them along a timeline. Our plans are quite ambitious but within the realm of possibility. We figured how much money and time we’d need to achieve each goal. It’s not that we haven’t done this before, but after going through a big transition like moving, it was good for us to check in to see whether we’re still on track. When life gets busy, it’s easy to forget your ‘why.’ If you wander too far off from your plans, your spending gets sloppy and problems arise from there. It was a good exercise in getting refocussed on what we want.

We also made adjustments to how we monitor our spending. We created a shared spreadsheet on Google that we can each access on our phones and computers. Whenever we buy something or pay a bill, we enter it on the spreadsheet. We considered using mint.com to track our spending and savings, but it can’t properly factor in all of our investment accounts where we put all of our savings. I don’t really mind having to do things more manually as it’s more interactive. Doing things this way encourages us to talk more about our expenses, which ultimately has led us to make huge improvements in our strategies.

Couples have their own ways of managing money. Some couples split every shared expense down the middle to the cent, and save and spend the rest how they see fit. Some couples rely on one spouse to do most or all of the money managing. We try to do everything together. There isn’t one right way to do this, as long as it works well.

JP and I try to account for everything. When we want to buy something extra, we pitch to the other one like it’s Dragon’s Den. This, I recognize, is not how most people want to operate! Keep in mind that we normally use up all of our savings to invest. Anything frivolous takes away from each other’s ability to buy stocks, so it better be good. We still treat ourselves, as long as we budget for it. As much as we like talking about stocks and the markets, talking about our financial logistics is just as important.

Within days of determining that one of our goals is to invest in a snowbird property within the next year, we booked ourselves to go to Costa Rica to start looking around. I love goals!

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Having said all that, we both just transferred money to each of our TFSAs. We spent this morning looking for some decent picks, but we can’t find anything worth investing in this week. The only good ones were in the gold sector, but right now neither of us is interested in the goldies. The market has gone straight up for almost two months and needs to take a breather. If the market resets on the monthly or weekly charts, we might find better picks — at least we’ll be funded and ready for when the opportunity is there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Thanksliving Day Weekend

The week of October 2
  • On Oct 2, I bought 10 shares of ZPR.TO at $11.61. This cost me $116.10.
  • To my horror, I realized later on that I meant to buy 15 shares of ZPR, not just 10. So I ended up buying another 5 shares the next day at $11.67 a share (6 cents more!). This cost me $58.35. Aw phooey!
  • I would have bought more ZPR on Wednesday when I finally had more funds in the account, but the price was up higher by that point. Instead, I bought 15 shares of GRL.TO at $7.96 per share. This cost $119.55.

I have $37.92 in cash left in my RRSP.

GRL and ZPR

Price charts for GRL and ZPR on freestockcharts.com

I bought both of these stocks earlier this year. In early January, I got 50 shares of ZPR for $10.86 and 50 shares of GRL for $7.74 in mid-February. When you work out the average price, it looks like this:

ZPR

  • 50 shares @ $10.86 + $0.50 in commission* = $543.50
  • 10 shares @ $11.61 = $116.10
  • 5 shares @ $11.67 = $58.35
  • This totals to $717.95
  • Take the total cost of $717.95 and divide it by 65 shares. You get $11.05 a share for ZPR.

* I forgot to buy this under the “Free ETF Investment” commission structure with Virtual Brokers. I did remember to choose the correct commission structure this time around. At least I got one important thing right.

GRL

  • 50 shares @ $7.74 + $0.50 in commission = $387.50
  • 15 shares @ $7.96 + $0.15 in commission = $119.55
  • This totals to $507.05.
  • Divide $507.05 by 65 shares = $7.80 a share

Oh, what fun math can be! 

I really need to work this out for all the stocks I’ve averaged or scaled into. I scaled into a few of my other stocks last week — as I’ve been doing throughout the summer. I wish I could be a little more type A when it comes to tracking.

My new year’s resolution was to get more organized with tracking my trades. I still use post-it reminders occasionally. I now have two bulletin boards and a whiteboard to post better visual reminders for my trade ideas, upcoming strategies, and items that need attention. While I’ve made improvements in keeping up with things, I’m still floundering in the tracking department.


Thanksgiving Day 

Tomorrow my in-laws are coming to stay with us for a few days. They know it’s going to be a vegetarian ‘Thanksliving’ (the term courtesy of Jesse Eisenberg), so I’m sure they’re getting their turkey fill tonight with the other half of the family in Calgary before they fly in tomorrow.

I’ve got yummy Tofurky on the menu (don’t knock it until you try it) along with savoury kale chips, grilled veggies, dessert cookies, and other things that go well with good wine and craft beer. This may seem unappetizing to many, but we’re decent cooks for a couple of veg-heads and have yet to disappoint our guests. Cholesterol levels will not be spiking tomorrow!

I’ve got some cleaning and prep to do tonight so that tomorrow, I can trade in the morning for my US margin account as the US markets are open. Once I’m done trading, Thanksgiving cooking – and drinking – begin in the early afternoon.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Portfolio Choices

The Week of Oct 2
  • Over the weekend, I deposited $150 into the RRSP. I will have $328.22 in cash in the account as it takes a couple of business days for the transfer to show up in the account.

September was a bit of hectic month for me. Other than scaling into THCX.V, a stock which I already owned in my TFSA, I didn’t do much in the portfolio department. Sometimes you just have to take care of other business before you can properly take care of the business.

Last week, I finished the Trader Training Course with the Canadian Securities Institute. The night I found out I passed, I immediately signed up for the Technical Analysis Course. Even though I read charts all the time and dream about them in my sleep, I always like to read up on the basics. The text and course have been recently updated and I must say, I’m pretty impressed so far with the really clear explanations. I’ve read a lot of other books on technical analysis and this one is the best one yet. It better be because it costs A LOT more!


Now that I will have more cash, I’m considering buying more shares of ZPR. Check it out.

ZPR

Price chart for the ZPR ETF on freestockcharts.com

In the summer, I was curious to see if this would continue trading sideways. It still is, but it could be starting to break out. The worst that could happen is that if the market turns, this one will too after I enter, but I don’t really care. They say you should never have a bias when it comes to your investments, but I can’t help but like this one. I have shares of this in my TFSA as well.

Since it’ll take a couple of days for me to have the other $150 in this account, I’ll put a limit order in for 15 shares on Monday (tomorrow). Once the other cash shows up, I’ll get more. We’ll see how it works out.


Some More Stock Picks

I like the monthly charts for the following stocks:

  • CPG.TO
  • WCP.TO
  • ERF.TO
  • EFN.TO (This one needs another week or so to set up better.)
  • ACB.TO (This could use another week or two to set up.)
  • EXE.TO (I already own shares of this. It needs to tighten up, but I’m watching this one closely.)
ACB

Price chart for ACB.TO on freestockcharts.com

ACB is interesting because it’s a young stock. When you don’t have much to go on for the longer term charts of the weekly, monthly, and yearly, then you have to look shorter term and rely on the daily, hourly, or even shorter intraday timeframes (30 min, 15 min). It becomes more of a risk when you have less historical information to make your decisions on. In these situations, you just manage your risk accordingly. Even though it’s a cheap stock, you might want to buy fewer shares. As time goes on and you have more information and encounter better setups, you can always buy more shares.

I say this because I normally wouldn’t enter a stock that has gone up for six straight weeks as seen on the weekly chart. It would have to have an amazing monthly chart, which this one doesn’t yet because it’s still new. However, the daily chart is great in that is has a lot of trade volume supporting its most recent uptrend. What’s also attractive about this uptrend is that it’s had four pullbacks testing the trendline since it started in late August.

I’m a little hesitant to buy a new weed stock for the RRSP, but I think I will take on a few shares of this for my TFSA.

As always, do your necessary research and only risk what you’re comfortable with!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Markets and Stock Picks

Marks

Monthly charts of market ETFs: XIU, DIA, SPY, QQQ on freestockcharts.com

The Markets

I typically like to analyze the XIC ETF as it consists of more TSX stocks. The XIC is very much like the SPY ETF for the S&P 500 index. When I want to know how the tech-focussed stocks are doing, I check out the QQQ.

I admit, I rarely look at the XIU (the TSX’s top 60 large cap stocks) or the DIA (the U.S. ETF for the Dow Jones Industrial Average). It’s an old habit of mine as my trading background was more focussed on shorter timeframes and bigger price action. There is less price action in these indexes that cover the large-cap, blue chippy stocks. Molasses moves faster than some of these stocks’ prices — this is because there are so many more shares to go through at each price level before the price moves up or down. Less price action, though, doesn’t mean less money. It’s just more stable. I really should watch these ETFs more because this is where big money, like funds, tends to go. With investing, it’s often good to follow the big money.

I drew horizontal lines on the charts for the XIU, DIA, and QQQ to show where those stocks had reset. The XIU has been “resetting” for a long while now, pretty much since February. The DIA (often called “the Diamonds”) had a reset in April and the Qs had one in July. Look at the SPY’s trendline that goes straight up. When is the SPY going to take a breather? If we’re going by season, then perhaps in the fall?

Observing the timing of these corrections demonstrates well the cyclical nature of markets. To get a better idea of what drives these differences means to take a closer look at the sectors and specific stocks that dominate their respective markets.

I worry that if the SPY makes a correction, it will affect the Canadian market. If I didn’t concern myself with the U.S. market at all, I have to say that I like what the charts tell me for the Canadian market. It’s been rationally pulling back for over half a year now and moving sideways for three months. It could be gearing up for another bullish move up. Let’s hope that if and when the SPY comes down, investors move into the Canadian stocks and start a new investment cycle.


Stocks to Check Out

Here are some stocks with nice-looking monthly charts:

  • TCW.TO
  • CVE.TO
  • SJR.B.TO
  • HSE.TO
  • IPL.TO
  • POU.TO
  • MG.TO
  • THCX.V (I own shares of this one already.)

Now, keep in mind, most of these are oil stocks. If you’re considering trading any of these, keep a close eye on the sector. And as I always advise, do your own necessary research on the company, the sector, and the markets. Consider how your choices fit into your grand plan and decide on the appropriate time horizons and how much you can safely risk for your portfolio.

Catios

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Our catio. We’re halfway there!

This week, I barely remembered to do my monthly deposit of $150 into my RRSP. I admit I have not paid any attention to the markets nor my investment accounts. This happens from time to time, and I’m mostly okay with that. I’ll get back into it this week or next week.

Instead, I found myself doing a lot of personal stuff that I’d put off all summer, such as returning and exchanging items, pursuing refunds, cancelling magazine subscriptions, closing useless accounts, etc. I’m also trying to stay on top of my study schedule. What has taken centre stage though, is the designing and building of our cat enclosure, also known as a catio. Yes, we’re nutty cat people.

JP and I relocated this spring/summer. It was a long, gradual process. Unlike our other moves, this one involved a lot of research trips and planning in the beginning. Once we officially decided to move, I ventured out first in the spring. I sublet an apartment in student housing, and boy was that a shift in lifestyle! After moving into a room smaller than my bathroom back home, I looked for work and found a job. After that, I found a house for us to move into. This house needed a lot of cleaning and fixing.

During the week after work, we cleaned and painted the new place and then on the weekends, went back to our place in the countryside. JP and I had to clean, repair and re-paint with the goal of getting our own house ready for renters as of September.

The biggest job was the decluttering process, which actually took a couple of months. We’d been holding a lot of stuff on behalf of our families. We adopted a ruthless policy in deciding what was coming with us and what would be sold on Kijiji or in our big garage sale. We made several exhausting trips to the dump and donation centres. Even after we moved everything, we still got rid of unwanteds as we unpacked. Overall, we got rid of over a third of what we had at our old place. There is nothing more freeing than having in your possession only the things you really want and need.

Our next priority was figuring out what to do about our cats. They’re both wild, country boys who moved in with us on their own — we discovered that this is how many cats and dogs become pets in the countryside, by the way! One moved in five years ago one very cold winter and the other started coming in on his own as of last summer. We had an open door policy with them that allowed them to come and go as they pleased. They were undoubtedly going to have a hard time adjusting from five acres of farmland to a city with so many neighbours around, in addition to being around a lot of traffic. There’s a good chance of them wandering far, becoming lost, or much worse.

We first tried to put collars on them with trackers. They HATED the collars so much, that no amount of positive conditioning was going to work. Introducing a leash led to many traumatic moments, and we nearly lost one of them. So, we opted to build an enclosure in our backyard. We got a lot of ideas from YouTube where people posted handy videos on how they designed and built ‘catios’ on their own. Some of the designs were a little weak, but others were so creative and simply amazing.

We knew some parts of the construction would be beyond our abilities so we spent a couple of weeks finding a contractor. Try explaining what a catio is to anybody…then try having people take you seriously after you tell them all this trouble is for your cats! Honestly, with many cities implementing new by-laws that don’t allow you to let your pets roam free, these pet enclosures are going to be the next hot thing. They solve a lot of problems from losing your pets to preserving bird populations. Also, your pets will be happier and healthier not being stuck indoors.

Through a connection at JP’s new job, we found some willing contractors who were more curious than anything. We had a great time working with them yesterday and hope to be completed next weekend. The head carpenter even wants to take JP under his wing for upcoming jobs and teach him the tricks of the trade. If he gets good, who knows? Maybe catio designing will be our next side business! Look at the catio empire this couple has started.

This project was not ‘cheap’ but it’s worth it as we’re investing in our pets’ health, safety, and happiness!

 

MOVING IN

Buddy and Tiny, my cat babies

 

 

My Best Investment

Back to school

I always get nostalgic this time of year.

Once upon a time, in a faraway land, I was a fretting teenager about to finish high school. While all the other girls were obsessing over prom and what college they were going to, my own world was crashing around me. My boyfriend dumped me two weeks before prom, leaving me dateless. That was also the year my father became chronically ill and was ordered to go on medical leave. There would be no college fund to support me. I was admitted to the university I had set my sights on, but I had no idea how I was going to afford it.

Humiliated and defeated, I opted to lowball my expectations on everything. I wouldn’t go to prom and I wouldn’t go to university. I had some great excuses to stop caring, so I leaned into them. My friends became my fairy godmothers. One took it upon herself to find me a date. Through her grad date, she managed to set me up with a model/actor (or actor/model?). My other friend made me copy and study her year’s worth of notes for my Biology 12 exam, the most demanding subject I had to study for that year. Because of my friends’ clutch support, I was motivated to keep going.

With Starbucks’ chocolate covered coffee beans to keep me jacked, I crammed like a champ. I aced everything that counted and I finished with honours. My grad date, whom everyone ogled that night, turned out to be a seasoned partier. Instead of binge-drinking at a house party with the other grads after prom, my friends and I followed our dates to a rave in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside where we danced until four in the morning. I took a cab home with my bestie as the sun was rising. I finished high school feeling like a rock star.

My next problem was going to be going to university. I got a job, but I couldn’t qualify for a student loan because the tax year prior to my dad’s medical leave stated he made a lot. The financial issue was moot as I didn’t even know what I was going to study even if I could afford school. With no money and no clear ambition, it made no sense for me to go to study at all.

I continued to work. Without any goals to anchor me, I spent my money faster than it came in. I was living the Gen X dream buying beer, candy, and cigarettes, watching movies all day, wondering about the future. I’ve told this story many times before and it’s because it was critical to everything I’ve ever done thereafter. My boss saw how much money I was quickly wasting after each payday. She gave me a talking to and told me how to start saving and investing. Her persuasive sisterly coercion got me going to the bank and getting started. Then after saving for a while, things changed. With money in the bank, I saw school as a possibility. Determined to go to law school, I reapplied to university.

I finished my bachelor’s in record time (thanks, Starbucks coffee beans!). By the end of it, though, I decided not to go to law school. With good financial habits and the benefit of going to university when it was still affordable, I graduated with no student debts. I traveled a lot and lived overseas for a few years but came back to Canada. Even though my studies in humanities was never directly applicable to any line of work I sought, having a degree gave me better job options.

After ten years of drifting, I was still by definition a slacker, but at least I had savings. I brainstormed many possibilities on where I was headed next. I found I was most curious about opening a business. This led to my part-time studies in business school and eventually, further studies and pursuits in investing and the stock market.

Today, I am once again a student. I am deeply curious about how the stock market works on the inside. I know what it is to be a trader/investor, but what happens behind the curtain is what I really want to know next. I am currently enrolled with the Canadian Securities Institute, working towards my Certificate in Equity Trading & Sales. I don’t know exactly where studying this will take me; whether I trade for others or still just myself, I will always be a trader, only a more educated one.

Whether you achieve your career peak and hit your financial goals, learning should never stop. You can take courses or just read books that will help you develop in parts of your life that you feel need focus. In the long run, being dedicated to your personal and professional development really is the best investment.

Some Predictions: The Markets and the Big Fight

The Markets 

Up and down charts

Price charts for ETFs: SPY, QQQ, XIC, and GDX on freestockcharts.com

The US markets have only started their decline since the last month. The Canadian market has been going down since late February. That is no surprise since it had gone up for an entire year since February 2016. The gold sector has been starting to trend up since mid-July. Whether gold breaks out or just jogs sideways is hard to tell at this point.

The trade volume in the US markets has been very high this summer. A lot of selling happening, particularly in the tech sector. Tech had been going up since last summer, so like the Canadian market, after a year of bullish trading, it was bound to sell off.

I think the US markets are going to continue trending downward until the end of September, maybe even going into October. If the selling is heavy enough, it could trigger a longer bear market until the new year. If this happens, it’ll be tough on the Canadian market as it will only get weaker.

For the time being, I’m going to be really reserved about buying anything. I would like to see a substantial correction in the US markets before feeling confident in the next uptrend.


Mayweather vs. McGregor

Any predictions? No doubt, there is a lot of betting on this fight! I don’t believe in betting on sports. Instead, I just argue over who I think will win. My brothers and I got into a fun debate over Mayweather and McGregor. Two out the three of us siblings think that Mayweather will win, though we’re all kind of rooting for McGregor. It’s just really weird that one is a pure boxer and the other is an MMA fighter. McGregor really is the wild card.

I grew up watching a lot of boxing and wrestling. Eventually, I started watching UFC, Pride, and K1 fighting. One time, ages ago, I had a short stint working with a K1 promoter in Japan. I was in my element talking to all the fighters and getting an inside look into that world. I hung out with them all for a few days, some of whom I’d recognized from TV: Mike Bernardo, Jan the Giant, Alexey Ignashov, and Canada’s own Mike McDonald and Gary Goodridge. Some of these guys started out boxing and eventually got into other forms of fighting, especially since there was money to be made.

The day of the tournament, things got intense. At ringside, I could hear every punch land and every kick connect. These fighters, my new buddies, were really hurting each other. Whether they won or lost, everyone got hurt. After that, I couldn’t watch fights with the same enthusiasm.

Well, JP twisted my arm and got us tickets to watch tonight’s fight at our local Cineplex’s VIP theatre. I do think that Mayweather has a better shot at winning unless McGregor can get a few really hard punches in early enough. If he can’t, I think Mayweather will tire him out until he goes in for the kill. It’ll be bad if McGregor accidentally resorts to MMA and disqualifies the fight. We’ll soon find out!

The Transparent RRSP: Relative Strength

The Week of August 14
  • On Wednesday, August 16th, I bought 100 shares of Bombardier (BBD.B.TO) at $2.65 per share.
  • With $1 in commissions, the whole purchase was $266.00. I now have $18.47 in cash in the RRSP account.

I actually meant to buy the shares on Tuesday, but I totally forgot to put in an order! So, on Tuesday night, I put in a limit order to buy 100 shares at $2.68, a couple of cents above the current bid/ask price. I was peeved by my sloppiness, but I’d been stalking this stock all month, watching it against the market. I wanted it that badly that I was willing to pay more than I knew I should have.

Thankfully, on Wednesday, my order was filled at the lower price of $2.65! This happens sometimes; other times it can go the other way and your order will be filled at a much higher price. It’s called slippage when you get filled at a higher price than what you have on order. Slippage tends to happen more when stocks are lightly traded. Bombardier is a heavily traded stock, so slippage is less likely to happen.


Let’s do some chart analysis!

 

BBD analysis

Price charts for BBD.B and XIC on freestockcharts.com

On Chart #1, the pink arrow shows the day I bought BBD.B. No special day and it closed negative. On Chart #2, the pink arrow for the XIC market ETF shows the market on the day I bought BBD.B.

The blue arrows on both charts #1 and #2 show how they closed for the week. BBD.B closed more positive than the market did, showing relative strength. There’s been uncertainty in the overall markets in general with the possibility of war — and then you add violent protests and terrorist attacks to the mix and you get even more negativity. I hope this little stock, along with the rest of the RRSP portfolio (come on, LIQ!), will show resilience in the face of all this.

Chart #3 is the weekly chart for BBD.B. It’s a healthy looking chart with a very bullish setup. (If you’re not familiar with the market lingo, bullish means optimistic and positive because apparently, bulls look up when they’re in attack mode; bearish means negative and pessimistic because bears look down when they’re about to pummel you. There could be more to the meaning of these terms, but all that matters is that you get the picture.)

Chart #4 shows a lot of potential for BBD.B to move up if and when it gets past the previous price resistance points as seen on that pink dotted line.

Of course, all of this can go potty — regardless the relative strength and bullish setups — if the overall markets get really negative and there are more sellers than buyers. No matter what, just try to stay positive and strong!