Stock Picks

selloffs

Market ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and XIC on freestockcharts.com

The US market is making me nervous as the charts get higher with bigger candles. At some point, it’s gotta sell off, right? I notated on the charts the last months where the most selling happened.

Market cycles can either be four months for the shorter term, or eight to ten months. The SPY and DIA show their last major sell-offs were in March of last year. The Canadian market, on the other hand, looks like it could be halfway through its current move up. It could pause for a bit at the current highs before continuing its move. If the US market pulls back, it’ll be interesting to see how the Canadian market will react.

It’s been a hectic week for me and I’m gearing to go back to work tomorrow. I managed to do a quick search and I found some decent charts to check out:

  • BB.TO
  • PD.TO
  • ACBN.TO (watch for a consolidation setup on the daily chart)
  • ENB.TO

Be sure to check the sector and do your necessary research and take the right amount of risk so that you can feel confident in your trades/investments.


Oh, and happy new year!

 

Travel Costs

 

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Playa Beisanz

 

Total Cost of the Best Trip Ever: $2400


Total Airfare for Two: $770

This covered two roundtrip tickets with Copa Airlines from November 28 – December 5. We booked through Canadian Fares online. I know that this was likely cheaper because the dates fell before peak season.

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Meal on Copa Airlines

Copa Air was impressive – flying with them took me back to how things were before food and alcohol became additional. We were shocked when they came out with the drinks – including alcohol – near the start and end of the flight. I got so nostalgic that I just went for the guava juice – something I hadn’t had since I was a kid. Then came the meals! I had to pinch myself. I haven’t eaten anything on a flight without whipping out my credit card in years.

Another plus side when booking with Copa: When you leave Costa Rica, you apparently have to pay a departure tax of $29 USD. This fee was included in the airfare. There are a few airlines that will automatically include this fee in the price and Copa is one of them. Otherwise, if you don’t have US cash or the Costa Rican equivalent to pay at the airport, you pay this tax at the booth by a cash advance on your credit card. Oh, and we didn’t have to pay for our checked baggage.

The only downside to this airline was having Barry Manilow’s song, “Copacabana,” earworm its way into my head for the entire flight going there and back.


Park ‘n’ Fly: $185

Our flight was at 8 AM. It made the most sense for us to stay at a hotel where we could park our car for eight days while we were away. With such an early departure and late arrival, I appreciated being shuttled to and from the airport. We usually book our park ‘n’ fly using points, but this was more of a last minute booking and we couldn’t swing it this time around.


Manulife Travel Insurance: $48

This covered the two of us. Neither of us is covered by any insurance plans at work, many of which also includes basic travel insurance.

There were times in the past when I thought travel insurance was a waste of money…until the one time I needed it and it was totally worth it. The insurance covered all the costly medical bills for this one unexpected incident.


Total cost of Airbnb: $327

We went on this trip for three reasons: 1) We always wanted to go to Costa Rica, 2) We wanted to have a warm getaway, and 3) JP and I are considering buying property somewhere nice and warm.

We decided to check out a place that was easy enough to get to near a lot of beaches. That way, if we bought a property that was accessible and attractive to many tourists, it would be easy to rent out on Airbnb. We settled for the town of Herradura, which is near the locals hangout, Herradura Beach, the bachelor party capital, Jaco Beach, and the surfer-covered Hermosa Beach. We booked a house through AirBnB which was a quick drive from all those places.

It was our first time booking anything through Airbnb. What an experience! We made friends with the neighbours and had them over on most nights where we shared food and drinks. They even took us on a hike through a river to these local waterfalls. They showed us around some resorts, beaches, bars, etc. I’m sure that’s not what usually happens with Airbnb and that this was more of a unique opportunity to make new friends.


Car rental: $258

We booked through Dollar in Costa Rica ahead of time, snatching the best online deal we could find. There are a number of car rental desks at the airport where they shuttle you to their actual locations off-site, as there is no spot for them at the San Jose airport.

We got a basic car with basic insurance. They tried to pressure JP into getting the premium insurance plan, but he wouldn’t budge. The guy became a bit of a prick after we said no! Apparently, all the cars in Costa Rica are standard. (Really?) The driving there is more aggressive in that there is no room for hesitation. JP really liked driving there!


Duty-Free Booze: $98

20171209_1330461036299762.jpgOn the way to Costa Rica, our stopover was at the Panama Airport. The next time we head to this area, we are definitely going to Panama! Well, we were drawn to all the duty-free stores glowing with enormous bottles of rum and tequila. We didn’t know how hard/easy it would be to find alcohol in CR when we arrived in the evening. We shopped around and bought a bottle of rum ($17 USD) and one of tequila ($24 USD) equal to $53.76 CAD. On the way back to Canada, we bought two big bottles of rum ($34 USD = $44.35 CAD). We just knew we couldn’t find bottles of this size and price back home. We paid with credit card both times.


Cash for food, gas, etc: $588 = ₡240,000

We read that most places only took cash. Credit cards could be used at more expensive places and you could still be charged extra transaction fees for using it. We figured to bring about $600 worth of CR Colones. We ordered the currency from our bank. The exchange rate with them was much better than at an exchange house. We just had to wait almost a week for the money to arrive (which came the day before we left!).

On our way to our accommodation, we stopped over at some food stands and stores to load up with enough chow to tide us over the next few days. We bought tropical fruits, tomatoes, beans, nuts, and rice. We nearly fell over after we figured that the few bags we purchased amounted to $80. The food prices in Costa Rica rival Japan’s. I mean, I have never tasted more exquisite avocados and pineapples, but come on! However, alcohol is much less expensive there. On most days we ate a lot of fruit and made our own meals. The place we stayed at had a great kitchen where JP whipped up the best dishes.

We allowed ourselves a couple of extravagant days when we bought day passes to hang out at a nearby resort which gave us access to the poolside bar/restaurant and beach. A pass cost us $30 USD each.

After a week in Costa Rica, we blew through most of our cash. We had enough to refill the gas tank before returning the car to the rental agency. With all the driving we did, including a day trip to Manuel Antonio in the south, we used only one tank of gas. Filling it up cost around $45 CAD. We gave the remainder of our colones to the shuttle driver who took us to the airport.


Roaming: $96

We paid $10 a day for data. We needed to navigate a lot on Google maps. Fun fact: They don’t use addresses in Costa Rica! Everyone uses landmarks. There were a couple of days when we didn’t need data, but I forgot to put my phone on airplane mode before midnight.  Before leaving, I also had to make a phone call from Canada to the caretaker of the house to arrange for the key exchange.


If you added the food we bought at the airport while waiting to depart in Canada, Panama, and Costa Rica, it comes to another $25 CAD. All told that is about $2400 or $1200 per person. Not bad for one of the most incredible trips I have ever taken. We went to four different beaches, witnessed the most stunning sunsets, saw so much wildlife, made new friends, and learned so much about that amazing country. Would we consider buying property there? Claro que si!

 

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Playa Herradura

 

The Transparent RRSP: Vacay

The week of November 27
  • I deposited $150 into the RRSP ahead of December. There is $351.89 cash in the RRSP account.

JP and I are going away for a week to Costa Rica (we’re going to the Pacific side). We decided to only bring our tablet and phones. Neither of us has plans to trade while we’re away. Our main focus is to relax, enjoy the warm weather, check out the real estate situation there, and read and swim at the beach. I might squeeze in some study time whenever I can. Derivatives and options have my brain turned in on itself – to take a week off could mean excruciating reviewing when I return.

The airfare was too hard to turn down: $770 CAD for both our tickets! Yes, we’re travelling at a time when the weather isn’t totally unbearable in Ontario yet. We do, however, plan to go to Florida in late February. That’s usually when the cabin fever is at its most intense and could use a warm disruption. Before I take off, I must, of course, look at the markets.


 

November markets

SPY, QQQ, DIA, XIU ETF charts on freestockcharts.com

 

I don’t know how the market will trade after the US Thanksgiving holiday. December could be positive because of a stronger retail sector around this time. The bearish correction in the fall that I was bracing/hoping for never came. (And that is why we trade the trend, even if we don’t believe it’s still there.)

The trade volume in the US markets seems to be coming down while the prices are going up. The confluence of those two factors often means that: 1) savvy investors start to take profits, and 2) the public starts asking those investors if it’s a good time to buy Apple. The best thing to do is wait for 3) to happen, which is an actual correction.

I was in the Caribbean on my first and last cruise in early 2015 when this happened:

Caribbean

XIC ETF on freestockcharts.com

When JP and I checked our email for the most expensive 10 minutes of our lives, we also checked the markets. At the time, we were only day trading, which meant we were holding no positions in our accounts. Although we weren’t losing money, we figured good opportunities would be short-lived. We were concerned about entering a more hostile trading environment in which small fish like us would get eaten by the bigger, well-funded fish.

After we returned and got our sea legs back, we looked at Canadian companies that traded on both Canadian and US stock exchanges. We discovered they were CHEAP. We bought just a few to hold long term and had a gangbuster year. I doubt the market will do that in the week that we’re gone. Perhaps next January?


I have some stock charts worth checking out:

  • FIRE.V (New and risky, but cheap. Take fewer shares.)
  • IMH.V (Same as above.)
  • TCW.TO
  • SSL.TO (I already have this in my RRSP.)
  • SMF.TO

Please check the company, the sector, the earnings, the market, and the fundamentals that you think are important. Always do your due diligence to trade with confidence while respecting your risk tolerance. I do think that the market could pull back early in the new year. You could wait until then before buying or take fewer shares now and more later.

The Transparent RRSP: A Beauty Swing Trade

The week of October 30 
  • I deposited $150.00 into the RRSP account. There is 192.17 in cash now.

I’m still waiting for the market to correct, even by just a little on the weekly chart before I do anything. My focus is also elsewhere as I have an exam tomorrow for my Technical Analysis Course. Even though technical analysis is my ‘thing,’ it would be totally humiliating if I didn’t pass. I’m actually studying much more for this exam than I did for my last one. This also means I’m putting in zero effort in looking presentable around the house. JP drew this picture of me this morning:

 

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This is me.

 

If this is how I look right now, JP must really love me for what’s inside!

I haven’t been interested in opening any new positions in the last little while because I’d rather wait until the market has had a correction. For JP, his strategy in trading an extended market is to trade this bullish sentiment with shorter term trades. He took a beauty trade last week worth talking about.

MOGO

MOGO on freestockcharts.com

JP bought shares of MOGO.TO last Thursday. Then on Monday, KABOOM! He sold 2/3rds of his shares. On Tuesday, he sold some more shares. Now he has a small number of shares which he’ll keep in for a longer time period.

The thing is, MOGO has been on JP’s radar for quite some time now. It’s had a number of breakouts (November 2016, January 2017, February, and April). He either missed the breakouts or wasn’t paying close enough attention to during those times.

MOGO had been building a base over the last two months. It had consolidated, trading sideways with the price range tightening up on less volume. In a bullish market, this is a money setup. JP’s patience paid off with a handsome profit made over just a few days. He also bought shares of PUR.TO and DRM.TO. I hope these trades work out too!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sector Action

The Canadian and U.S. markets closed strong this week. There was a bit of weakening on Wednesday, but some big moves for Microsoft and Amazon last night helped the NASDAQ as well as other tech stocks. The energy sector just had a strong couple of days which helped the rest of the market.

oils

Oil/energy ETFs HOU.TO and XEG.TO on freestockcharts.com

A lot of Canadian oil stocks were in play today. Here are a few:

  • RRX.TO
  • CPG.TO
  • CVE.TO
  • CFW.TO
  • TCW.TO
  • TOG.TO
  • ERF.TO

The charts for these either had good daily, weekly, or monthly charts – but none of them had great setups on all three of these timeframes. I decided to take a look at a couple of the energy ETFs, the HOU.TO and XEG.TO.

While it looks like the recent surge could take the sector higher, I checked to see if there is room to move up. The bullish move had already started in September, now nearing previous resistance as marked off on the charts. If the sector moves sideways a little longer with more buying and less selling, it could result in a more substantial move up.

This weekend, as you attend your costume parties and chat about the markets with your friends, try not to get too swept up in all the hype. It’s tempting to get really excited over all the market action that’s happened in the last while. Before you start buying up tech and energy stocks, watch how the market digests this over the next week or two.


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Trading this Market

On Monday, JP went through all the Canadian stocks and gave me a list to check out. I went through it and thought the following were great charts:

  • RME.TO
  • FRU.TO (A royalty company.)
  • LCS.TO (A fund)

The next day, he asked me which one(s) I was going to buy. I told him none of them. He couldn’t believe I was just going to sit on a bunch of cash without investing it. Of course, I had some explaining to do. It was very simple: I didn’t like the market. I figured the market was going to offer hokey bullishness all week which it did, ending with a big hoorah day on Friday.

 

Market Monthlies

The XIU, SPY, QQQ, and DIA ETFs on freestockcharts.com

Here are the monthly charts for the Canadian XIU ETF, and the U.S. ETFs: the SPY (S&P 500), the QQQ (the NASDAQ), and the DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). There are seven trading days left in this month. If we close at new highs with lower volume, then I will happily wait for a correction next month.

I noted on the charts the months when we last saw a correction or a reset. On the DIA chart, I put a star over March 2017. Even though there wasn’t a proper sell-off/ correction, it consolidated and traded sideways for the following three months, which is often a good setup for another run.

Out of all of them, Canada’s XIU looks the best. If the U.S. markets undergo a correction, then trading Canadian stocks could be the next best play. I’d keep a close eye on the Canadian financial stocks, though, to see whether they reset or have a substantial sell-off that could weigh down the Canadian market.

For the rest of the week, JP kept asking me for my contribution of picks in return. I flat out declared I’d rather sit on cash than to buy anything right now. (Honestly, I was too lazy to look, but we both knew that.) He agreed that although the market looks overbought, sector rotation could keep it churning and that unless something fundamental changes in world economics (like a big war), we’re going to keep going.

I found some charts worth watching over the next week or two:

  • CCO.TO (Needs better setups on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.)
  • MX.TO (Could tighten up on the monthly, but decent daily and weekly charts.)
  • ALA.TO (Nice monthly, but it went up a lot already on the daily and weekly.)
  • ATZ.TO (I own this already. This must set up on all timeframes.)
  • H.TO (I own this already. The monthly chart is meh.)
  • DRT.TO (I own this already. The weekly isn’t that clean.)

JP’s picks definitely look better than mine. However, I feel these are worth watching as they had more recent corrections on the monthly timeframe. None of these have great patterns on all their daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. I find that often when the pickings are slim, we’re due for a correction. By the time the correction or reset comes around, these picks could be even tighter. That’s the benefit of having cash ready and waiting in your account: you’ll be ready to go once the best opportunities are there. You can always afford to be patient.

 

 

 

 

 

Catios

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Our catio. We’re halfway there!

This week, I barely remembered to do my monthly deposit of $150 into my RRSP. I admit I have not paid any attention to the markets nor my investment accounts. This happens from time to time, and I’m mostly okay with that. I’ll get back into it this week or next week.

Instead, I found myself doing a lot of personal stuff that I’d put off all summer, such as returning and exchanging items, pursuing refunds, cancelling magazine subscriptions, closing useless accounts, etc. I’m also trying to stay on top of my study schedule. What has taken centre stage though, is the designing and building of our cat enclosure, also known as a catio. Yes, we’re nutty cat people.

JP and I relocated this spring/summer. It was a long, gradual process. Unlike our other moves, this one involved a lot of research trips and planning in the beginning. Once we officially decided to move, I ventured out first in the spring. I sublet an apartment in student housing, and boy was that a shift in lifestyle! After moving into a room smaller than my bathroom back home, I looked for work and found a job. After that, I found a house for us to move into. This house needed a lot of cleaning and fixing.

During the week after work, we cleaned and painted the new place and then on the weekends, went back to our place in the countryside. JP and I had to clean, repair and re-paint with the goal of getting our own house ready for renters as of September.

The biggest job was the decluttering process, which actually took a couple of months. We’d been holding a lot of stuff on behalf of our families. We adopted a ruthless policy in deciding what was coming with us and what would be sold on Kijiji or in our big garage sale. We made several exhausting trips to the dump and donation centres. Even after we moved everything, we still got rid of unwanteds as we unpacked. Overall, we got rid of over a third of what we had at our old place. There is nothing more freeing than having in your possession only the things you really want and need.

Our next priority was figuring out what to do about our cats. They’re both wild, country boys who moved in with us on their own — we discovered that this is how many cats and dogs become pets in the countryside, by the way! One moved in five years ago one very cold winter and the other started coming in on his own as of last summer. We had an open door policy with them that allowed them to come and go as they pleased. They were undoubtedly going to have a hard time adjusting from five acres of farmland to a city with so many neighbours around, in addition to being around a lot of traffic. There’s a good chance of them wandering far, becoming lost, or much worse.

We first tried to put collars on them with trackers. They HATED the collars so much, that no amount of positive conditioning was going to work. Introducing a leash led to many traumatic moments, and we nearly lost one of them. So, we opted to build an enclosure in our backyard. We got a lot of ideas from YouTube where people posted handy videos on how they designed and built ‘catios’ on their own. Some of the designs were a little weak, but others were so creative and simply amazing.

We knew some parts of the construction would be beyond our abilities so we spent a couple of weeks finding a contractor. Try explaining what a catio is to anybody…then try having people take you seriously after you tell them all this trouble is for your cats! Honestly, with many cities implementing new by-laws that don’t allow you to let your pets roam free, these pet enclosures are going to be the next hot thing. They solve a lot of problems from losing your pets to preserving bird populations. Also, your pets will be happier and healthier not being stuck indoors.

Through a connection at JP’s new job, we found some willing contractors who were more curious than anything. We had a great time working with them yesterday and hope to be completed next weekend. The head carpenter even wants to take JP under his wing for upcoming jobs and teach him the tricks of the trade. If he gets good, who knows? Maybe catio designing will be our next side business! Look at the catio empire this couple has started.

This project was not ‘cheap’ but it’s worth it as we’re investing in our pets’ health, safety, and happiness!

 

MOVING IN

Buddy and Tiny, my cat babies

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Market Fears

The Week of August 8
  • I left the RRSP account alone. I wanted to buy shares of Bombardier (BBD.B.TO), but I couldn’t find an entry. There might be an entry on Monday or Tuesday.

 

BBD vs XIC

Price charts: BBD.B vs. XIC on freestockcharts.com

As you can see in the top two charts, BBD.B has been more positive than the market (the two lower charts of XIC). If the market continues to head lower, I’ll either abandon the plan to buy shares of BBD.B or just wait until the market settles down.


Last Thursday, the markets collectively demonstrated anxiety over North Korea. There was a big market sell-off and most gold stocks went up. It’s hard to say at this point if this is a reaction temporary in nature, or if it will signify the beginning of more and more selling due to fear. I’m going to make it a point to pay closer attention to the news and to how the market trades over the next couple of weeks.

Last week, I put together a big watch list of stocks that had promising charts. After last Thursday, only a few of them still look okay:

  • L.TO (Wait another few weeks to a month for this to properly set up)
  • H.TO (I own shares of this stock already.)
  • EXE.TO (I own shares of this stock already.)
  • TCW.TO
  • D.UN.TO (This is a REIT.)
  • CNE.TO (Needs a better setup unless you’re into aggressive, riskier entries.)
  • LIF.TO

Until you know what’s going on with the market, I don’t recommend buying anything. These stocks would be worth looking at while also observing the market. Watch how these perform against the market or their sector. If resilient stocks start to show weakness, then it’s usually a good sign that a weaker market will become even weaker.

There are different ways to play defensive during uncertain times. You can buy gold or shares of gold stocks. You can also buy consumer staples stocks. You can buy nothing or you can sell all your stocks. Whatever you do, don’t lose sight of what you want for your portfolio long term and think strategically.

Since the late spring, I’ve been unloading shares of stock. I’m either selling portions of my positions or all of them to either collect profits or reduce my exposure to the market. I have still been buying shares here and there, but not as actively as I used to. This has nothing to do with North Korea. Rather, it’s more about the market, which has been pulling back since the end of April. Maybe eventually, it will have everything to do with a conflict with North Korea. Regardless of what happens, I’ll let the charts guide me, not my fear.