Stock Picks

selloffs

Market ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and XIC on freestockcharts.com

The US market is making me nervous as the charts get higher with bigger candles. At some point, it’s gotta sell off, right? I notated on the charts the last months where the most selling happened.

Market cycles can either be four months for the shorter term, or eight to ten months. The SPY and DIA show their last major sell-offs were in March of last year. The Canadian market, on the other hand, looks like it could be halfway through its current move up. It could pause for a bit at the current highs before continuing its move. If the US market pulls back, it’ll be interesting to see how the Canadian market will react.

It’s been a hectic week for me and I’m gearing to go back to work tomorrow. I managed to do a quick search and I found some decent charts to check out:

  • BB.TO
  • PD.TO
  • ACBN.TO (watch for a consolidation setup on the daily chart)
  • ENB.TO

Be sure to check the sector and do your necessary research and take the right amount of risk so that you can feel confident in your trades/investments.


Oh, and happy new year!

 

The Transparent RRSP: Vacay

The week of November 27
  • I deposited $150 into the RRSP ahead of December. There is $351.89 cash in the RRSP account.

JP and I are going away for a week to Costa Rica (we’re going to the Pacific side). We decided to only bring our tablet and phones. Neither of us has plans to trade while we’re away. Our main focus is to relax, enjoy the warm weather, check out the real estate situation there, and read and swim at the beach. I might squeeze in some study time whenever I can. Derivatives and options have my brain turned in on itself – to take a week off could mean excruciating reviewing when I return.

The airfare was too hard to turn down: $770 CAD for both our tickets! Yes, we’re travelling at a time when the weather isn’t totally unbearable in Ontario yet. We do, however, plan to go to Florida in late February. That’s usually when the cabin fever is at its most intense and could use a warm disruption. Before I take off, I must, of course, look at the markets.


 

November markets

SPY, QQQ, DIA, XIU ETF charts on freestockcharts.com

 

I don’t know how the market will trade after the US Thanksgiving holiday. December could be positive because of a stronger retail sector around this time. The bearish correction in the fall that I was bracing/hoping for never came. (And that is why we trade the trend, even if we don’t believe it’s still there.)

The trade volume in the US markets seems to be coming down while the prices are going up. The confluence of those two factors often means that: 1) savvy investors start to take profits, and 2) the public starts asking those investors if it’s a good time to buy Apple. The best thing to do is wait for 3) to happen, which is an actual correction.

I was in the Caribbean on my first and last cruise in early 2015 when this happened:

Caribbean

XIC ETF on freestockcharts.com

When JP and I checked our email for the most expensive 10 minutes of our lives, we also checked the markets. At the time, we were only day trading, which meant we were holding no positions in our accounts. Although we weren’t losing money, we figured good opportunities would be short-lived. We were concerned about entering a more hostile trading environment in which small fish like us would get eaten by the bigger, well-funded fish.

After we returned and got our sea legs back, we looked at Canadian companies that traded on both Canadian and US stock exchanges. We discovered they were CHEAP. We bought just a few to hold long term and had a gangbuster year. I doubt the market will do that in the week that we’re gone. Perhaps next January?


I have some stock charts worth checking out:

  • FIRE.V (New and risky, but cheap. Take fewer shares.)
  • IMH.V (Same as above.)
  • TCW.TO
  • SSL.TO (I already have this in my RRSP.)
  • SMF.TO

Please check the company, the sector, the earnings, the market, and the fundamentals that you think are important. Always do your due diligence to trade with confidence while respecting your risk tolerance. I do think that the market could pull back early in the new year. You could wait until then before buying or take fewer shares now and more later.

‘Tis the Season to Spend Wisely

Holiday Shopping 2

Make a shopping list and start early

This is the time of year when the shopping frenzy begins; what follows is the eating and drinking. It’s all a big winter feast, after all! The easiest thing to do is close your eyes and just run with it knowing that in the new year, you can promise to make amends to your suffering bank account and bulging waistline. This frustrating cycle happens each year for so many of us.

I started doing my Christmas shopping about two months ago. Beforehand, I created a rough shopping list. I was able to keep an eye out for when these items went on sale. Seasonal items, like fudge, are typically more abundant and therefore cheaper closer to Christmas. I’m okay with getting these in December. This is a saner and more budget-friendly way to shop. It’s an easier way to monitor spending and not lose sight of financial goals. 

I’m not always this ready and organized. Last year was unusually busy for me. I only managed to do a quarter of my shopping online ahead of the holidays. The rest I bought at Metrotown and Downtown Vancouver the few days leading up to Christmas. For anyone who lives in Greater Vancouver, you know that these shopping areas are already super busy on a slow day. Big crowds mean it takes forever to get anywhere. Buying presents at the last minute left me feeling stressed out and under pressure. I was exhausted and frazzled by the end of it. The part I dreaded most was returning home and having to add up all my receipts. The final total caused me enough grief and gave me the motivation to plan ahead this year.

I know that a lot of people are drawn to the bustle of holiday shopping. The inviting Christmas displays that retailers put up invoke warm fuzzy feelings of generosity and make you want to give to others as well as yourself. A lot of awesome things go on sale at this time. We just have to remember that sales happen all year round. It’s not the only time that we can do our Christmas shopping. Although I handled last year’s Christmas differently than other years, I am aware that I’m prone to making bad, desperate choices if I don’t plan ahead. 

I’ve got some big financial goals that I want to follow through with over the next year. I can’t let overspending in one season delay my long-term goals. I recognize that I typically spend more this time of year, but the important part is that I budgeted for it.


Stock Talk

I keep saying this like a broken record: I find this toppy market quite dodgy to trade in. I usually can tell when my best trading ideas are higher risk, lower odds. I did, however, still look through the market. Here’s a list of stocks with decent charts:

  • UR.TO
  • POT.TO
  • BB.TO (Aggressive entry for a possible swing trade.)
  • CIX.TO
  • G.TO
  • WPM.TO

It looks like the precious metal charts are starting to shape up, although I’m just not interested trading the metals right now. Weed stocks have been getting a lot of recent action. As tempting as it is to jump into these, I would wait until they settle down and consolidate before buying. I’m watching and waiting for these to take shape again, so I’ll keep you all posted on new trade ideas for weed stocks. I might still trade some of the stocks listed above, but I’d take fewer shares and keep my outlook shorter term.

 

 

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Taking Some Action

The week of November 6
  • I didn’t do anything for the RRSP. There is currently $194.64 of cash in the account.

I did, however, pass my Technical Analysis exam. I certainly didn’t do as well as I wanted to though! I carried on by buying some shares of H.TO and ATZ.TO for my TFSA. I already own these stocks in the TFSA so I was just scaling into what looked like some (aggressive) buying opportunities. I also signed up for the Derivatives Fundamentals & Options Licensing Course and the Futures Licensing Course. (Talk about intense content!) I hope to finish these courses early in the new year.


I’m still not a fan of this market and entering any new positions makes me nervous. I am considering making a move this week, though, depending on how my idea performs alongside the market.

TA2

TA.TO price chart on freestockcharts.com

The daily and weekly charts aren’t great for TA.TO; however, the monthly is appealing to me. It’s making higher lows and demonstrating a trading range that is tightening. This could lead to a really good long-term trading opportunity with so much room to move into the upside. I wouldn’t mind owning more shares of this stock should this move actually occur.

Last Thursday and Friday experienced heavier selling in the U.S. and Canadian markets. If the selling continues and the market starts to correct this week, I’ll be watching this stock to see how it performs against the market. TA is in the energy sector which has been showing more strength than other sectors. If energy keeps going, scaling into this could be a good idea.

I would only scale in with a few shares (5 to 15) as I think the market will still endure a larger correction. I don’t know if energy’s strength will outlast or outperform the overall market correction. There are times when the right thing to do is sit on your hands and wait, while other times you should take full advantage of great opportunities. I feel that right now, I should find some balance in taking some action with little risk as opposed to doing nothing.

 

The Transparent RRSP: A Beauty Swing Trade

The week of October 30 
  • I deposited $150.00 into the RRSP account. There is 192.17 in cash now.

I’m still waiting for the market to correct, even by just a little on the weekly chart before I do anything. My focus is also elsewhere as I have an exam tomorrow for my Technical Analysis Course. Even though technical analysis is my ‘thing,’ it would be totally humiliating if I didn’t pass. I’m actually studying much more for this exam than I did for my last one. This also means I’m putting in zero effort in looking presentable around the house. JP drew this picture of me this morning:

 

20171105_1731241444805594.jpg

This is me.

 

If this is how I look right now, JP must really love me for what’s inside!

I haven’t been interested in opening any new positions in the last little while because I’d rather wait until the market has had a correction. For JP, his strategy in trading an extended market is to trade this bullish sentiment with shorter term trades. He took a beauty trade last week worth talking about.

MOGO

MOGO on freestockcharts.com

JP bought shares of MOGO.TO last Thursday. Then on Monday, KABOOM! He sold 2/3rds of his shares. On Tuesday, he sold some more shares. Now he has a small number of shares which he’ll keep in for a longer time period.

The thing is, MOGO has been on JP’s radar for quite some time now. It’s had a number of breakouts (November 2016, January 2017, February, and April). He either missed the breakouts or wasn’t paying close enough attention to during those times.

MOGO had been building a base over the last two months. It had consolidated, trading sideways with the price range tightening up on less volume. In a bullish market, this is a money setup. JP’s patience paid off with a handsome profit made over just a few days. He also bought shares of PUR.TO and DRM.TO. I hope these trades work out too!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading this Market

On Monday, JP went through all the Canadian stocks and gave me a list to check out. I went through it and thought the following were great charts:

  • RME.TO
  • FRU.TO (A royalty company.)
  • LCS.TO (A fund)

The next day, he asked me which one(s) I was going to buy. I told him none of them. He couldn’t believe I was just going to sit on a bunch of cash without investing it. Of course, I had some explaining to do. It was very simple: I didn’t like the market. I figured the market was going to offer hokey bullishness all week which it did, ending with a big hoorah day on Friday.

 

Market Monthlies

The XIU, SPY, QQQ, and DIA ETFs on freestockcharts.com

Here are the monthly charts for the Canadian XIU ETF, and the U.S. ETFs: the SPY (S&P 500), the QQQ (the NASDAQ), and the DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). There are seven trading days left in this month. If we close at new highs with lower volume, then I will happily wait for a correction next month.

I noted on the charts the months when we last saw a correction or a reset. On the DIA chart, I put a star over March 2017. Even though there wasn’t a proper sell-off/ correction, it consolidated and traded sideways for the following three months, which is often a good setup for another run.

Out of all of them, Canada’s XIU looks the best. If the U.S. markets undergo a correction, then trading Canadian stocks could be the next best play. I’d keep a close eye on the Canadian financial stocks, though, to see whether they reset or have a substantial sell-off that could weigh down the Canadian market.

For the rest of the week, JP kept asking me for my contribution of picks in return. I flat out declared I’d rather sit on cash than to buy anything right now. (Honestly, I was too lazy to look, but we both knew that.) He agreed that although the market looks overbought, sector rotation could keep it churning and that unless something fundamental changes in world economics (like a big war), we’re going to keep going.

I found some charts worth watching over the next week or two:

  • CCO.TO (Needs better setups on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.)
  • MX.TO (Could tighten up on the monthly, but decent daily and weekly charts.)
  • ALA.TO (Nice monthly, but it went up a lot already on the daily and weekly.)
  • ATZ.TO (I own this already. This must set up on all timeframes.)
  • H.TO (I own this already. The monthly chart is meh.)
  • DRT.TO (I own this already. The weekly isn’t that clean.)

JP’s picks definitely look better than mine. However, I feel these are worth watching as they had more recent corrections on the monthly timeframe. None of these have great patterns on all their daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. I find that often when the pickings are slim, we’re due for a correction. By the time the correction or reset comes around, these picks could be even tighter. That’s the benefit of having cash ready and waiting in your account: you’ll be ready to go once the best opportunities are there. You can always afford to be patient.

 

 

 

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Portfolio Choices

The Week of Oct 2
  • Over the weekend, I deposited $150 into the RRSP. I will have $328.22 in cash in the account as it takes a couple of business days for the transfer to show up in the account.

September was a bit of hectic month for me. Other than scaling into THCX.V, a stock which I already owned in my TFSA, I didn’t do much in the portfolio department. Sometimes you just have to take care of other business before you can properly take care of the business.

Last week, I finished the Trader Training Course with the Canadian Securities Institute. The night I found out I passed, I immediately signed up for the Technical Analysis Course. Even though I read charts all the time and dream about them in my sleep, I always like to read up on the basics. The text and course have been recently updated and I must say, I’m pretty impressed so far with the really clear explanations. I’ve read a lot of other books on technical analysis and this one is the best one yet. It better be because it costs A LOT more!


Now that I will have more cash, I’m considering buying more shares of ZPR. Check it out.

ZPR

Price chart for the ZPR ETF on freestockcharts.com

In the summer, I was curious to see if this would continue trading sideways. It still is, but it could be starting to break out. The worst that could happen is that if the market turns, this one will too after I enter, but I don’t really care. They say you should never have a bias when it comes to your investments, but I can’t help but like this one. I have shares of this in my TFSA as well.

Since it’ll take a couple of days for me to have the other $150 in this account, I’ll put a limit order in for 15 shares on Monday (tomorrow). Once the other cash shows up, I’ll get more. We’ll see how it works out.


Some More Stock Picks

I like the monthly charts for the following stocks:

  • CPG.TO
  • WCP.TO
  • ERF.TO
  • EFN.TO (This one needs another week or so to set up better.)
  • ACB.TO (This could use another week or two to set up.)
  • EXE.TO (I already own shares of this. It needs to tighten up, but I’m watching this one closely.)
ACB

Price chart for ACB.TO on freestockcharts.com

ACB is interesting because it’s a young stock. When you don’t have much to go on for the longer term charts of the weekly, monthly, and yearly, then you have to look shorter term and rely on the daily, hourly, or even shorter intraday timeframes (30 min, 15 min). It becomes more of a risk when you have less historical information to make your decisions on. In these situations, you just manage your risk accordingly. Even though it’s a cheap stock, you might want to buy fewer shares. As time goes on and you have more information and encounter better setups, you can always buy more shares.

I say this because I normally wouldn’t enter a stock that has gone up for six straight weeks as seen on the weekly chart. It would have to have an amazing monthly chart, which this one doesn’t yet because it’s still new. However, the daily chart is great in that is has a lot of trade volume supporting its most recent uptrend. What’s also attractive about this uptrend is that it’s had four pullbacks testing the trendline since it started in late August.

I’m a little hesitant to buy a new weed stock for the RRSP, but I think I will take on a few shares of this for my TFSA.

As always, do your necessary research and only risk what you’re comfortable with!