Stock Picking – Part 2: Determine Your Investment Goals

Part 2: Determine Your Investment Goals

Objective: Identify your investment objectives first, and then let them guide you when you’re choosing a stock.


The main objective for investing in anything is to make money. With stocks, you make money two ways by selling your shares at a higher price than you paid and from dividend payments. Additionally, your decision to invest in a stock could be supported by a number of other reasons. Such reasons will guide you in the selection process.

Here are some reasons to buy a stock:

  • To fund your retirement 
  • For faster portfolio growth
  • To generate dividend income
  • You see potential growth in a particular sector, so you want a good stock from that sector
  • The economy is looking to slow down, so you want to invest in a defensive stock
  • The economy has been in a slump for a while but now business activity is starting to pick up, so you want to buy stocks to get in on the action
  • You like a company for its products, services, or growth potential, so you want to be a shareholder.

My investment objectives vary as I want to invest for the long-term (a fun and comfy retirement life) and the short-term (concerts, trips, and buying a couple of properties in Canada and somewhere hot).

For my retirement portfolio, it’s all about the long game and I’m looking to invest in something that will do me well for years, even decades. So, I look for stocks that have ‘blue chip’ qualities: they pay dividends, they’re well-known, well-established and have been around for a long time, and they usually offer more than one type of product or service which allows them to adapt to various consumer demands and trends. It’s also a bonus when the stocks are in defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. I don’t do much analysis here, I apply a very basic, rudimentary logic.

There is no guarantee these stocks won’t suffer when the economy is slow, but the idea is that even during tough times, they’ll do better or suffer less, and they’ll still likely pay you dividends. If their stock prices take a hit, I’ll likely buy more shares when they start to recover because they’ll be cheaper.

For my swing trades, I look for stocks that look like they’ll do well over the next few months to a year. I look for typically strong stocks that have been quiet for a while and haven’t seen much trading action. When this happens, it’s usually because their sectors have also been quiet. If all the stocks in a particular sector have been down for a while, I’ll narrow down my selection based on the stock price and volume. (See Stock Picking – Part 1.)

The selection process for my swing trades is more involved as I use a very basic form of technical analysis of a stock’s price history to help me decide on where I’m going to buy and where I’m likely going to sell. Technical analysis is about analyzing the price history of a stock in relation to its trading volume, sector, and market environment. 

Many people dispute the validity of technical analysis and prefer to examine the fundamentals of a company’s value in relation to its share price instead. They’re all valid to some degree and many financial pros analyze both the technical and fundamental information.

I prefer to analyze charts because I’d rather see if I’m paying much more than others who got in earlier than me. The lower the price I pay for a stock, the more confident I am in the trade. It’s not a guarantee that the price won’t go lower, but even if it does, I will suffer less by getting in at a lower price than if I bought a stock after it became hot and expensive. I never buy a stock after it makes the news because it’s usually too expensive by then.

chart-1d

Above is a very basic chart of a stock that I actually own. I consider a stock to be ‘quiet’ if it’s trading sideways (the first horizontal line). Think of a stock’s price in terms of flying in an airplane; trading sideways is like starting on the runway. I try to buy either when it’s still on the runway or just as it’s taking off (no higher than where the airplane is). So I just have a quick glance at a stock’s chart to determine if it’s just taken off or if it’s gone far beyond the clouds. If it has long taken off already, I’ll just wait for another sideways setup. Sometimes this wait time could take months to years and I’ll just keep checking the charts every now and then.

For years, I’ve been using freestockcharts.com to look up charts for Canadian and U.S. stocks. It’s FREE and the features and tools for the charts are very similar to what you would use if you had a pro trading account with a brokerage. To look up a stock, you just type the company name and you can select it from the list of options it provides. Sometimes a company will trade on both the Canadian and US stock exchanges, so be sure you’re selecting the proper exchange for you. There are many short and informative tutorials available on its site and on YouTube.

__________________________

I look at the charts for everything I buy for both long-term buys and shorter-term swing trades as my goal is always to buy shares at lower prices. For the long-term trades, it’s more important that the stocks meet some ‘blue chip’ criteria. For the swing trades, I rely more on technical analysis, the sectors, and the markets.

Next time, I’ll get into how I analyze sectors and markets!

 

 

Investing Philosophy

Growing up, I was quite cynical. I had an unhealthy outlook and lifestyle that reflected that attitude. This led to a lot of bad situations, poor health, and many regrets. Reversing an attitude means addressing the patterns that support it. This process can take a while. I’m coming to believe it’s a lifelong journey.

I think of good money management as just one aspect of life. It’s just as important as eating healthy, having an active, balanced lifestyle, and fostering positive relationships personally and professionally. I think most of us want to live a long happy, healthy, and financially comfortable life. To me, personal wealth and success exist because of a good balance among the following:

  • Having goals
  • Supporting these goals with well-thought out plans
  • Hard work, perseverance, and discipline
  • Living and thinking positively
  • Being kind and respectful
  • Pursuing health
  • Respecting your hard work through thoughtful spending
  • Constant self-improvement
  • Avoiding stressful choices

Managing to do these things all the time might be asking too much of yourself. However, it’s possible to make decent progress as we set bigger long-term goals and work towards them via smaller, short-term goals. Practice makes progress. The perfection we might be looking for actually exists in each moment along the way. Perfection is not a final, absolute state that appears at the finish line. All those small victories–whether or not they’re exactly what you expected–are what build you and your life.

The StickK Challenge to Lose Weight

Having said all that, I’m going to talk about the results of my StickK Challenge which I just completed this week. It was a two-month long challenge where I was to lose a certain amount of weight. Health is a form of wealth, and for a bit, I had lost my way. Last summer I pigged out on way too much ice cream for two months and found myself in an unhappy place physically, emotionally, and mentally. I wanted to work off last summer’s indulgence to get back to my healthy weight. I needed the motivation of losing money to make it happen. And it worked! Kinda… 

So this is how it works. You sign up with StickK and set your goal and the time frame you’d like to accomplish it in. You also put money on the line, so if you don’t meet your goals, you have to pay whatever amount you can’t bear to lose. You decide what amount is enough to motivate you to hit your goal. The challenge is not effective until you submit your credit card.

The challenge is broken up into increments. If you want to lose 10 lbs in 10 weeks, then you have to lose 1 pound per week. If you decided to put $1000 on the line, then you stand to lose $100 for each week you don’t hit your target. The money can go to someone you designate or to a charity of StickK’s choice. (Apparently, the people most successful with their StickK challenges were those who decided to pay someone they disliked.) If you meet the weekly requirement, you get to keep your money that week.

So let’s say on Week 5 you reported your weight, but you didn’t hit your target for that week, you only lost half a pound. You’re charged $100 that week. The following week, you’re expected to lose 1 pound — you’re not expected to lose 1.5 lbs to catch up. StickK adjusts the end goal but you’re still expected to lose weight at the same rate.  

I was unsuccessful for two periods, so I had to pay up twice. I found when I was unsuccessful, I got more motivated to get more consistent with my level of activity, sleep, and healthy eating (helpful tip: garlic helps you shed weight!). The end result: I missed my final goal by a small amount but I’m now back in my ideal weight range; I also lost a bit of money in the process. Had I not done the challenge, that same amount of money might have been spent on the same not-so-great food I was eating.

The challenge was totally worth it. I’ve got a better awareness of how much more active I should be and how much more I could improve my diet. For a while, I thought I was already doing all the right things and that nothing was working anymore because something broke in the metabolism department. But as my workout guru, Jillian Michaels, says, “There’s always an ‘UP’ button.” I hit that button by using the fear of losing money to motivate me and that motivation took me to a happier, healthier, and stronger place.

Thanks StickK! You took my money, but it was worth it!