The Transparent RRSP: Market Fears

The Week of August 8
  • I left the RRSP account alone. I wanted to buy shares of Bombardier (BBD.B.TO), but I couldn’t find an entry. There might be an entry on Monday or Tuesday.

 

BBD vs XIC

Price charts: BBD.B vs. XIC on freestockcharts.com

As you can see in the top two charts, BBD.B has been more positive than the market (the two lower charts of XIC). If the market continues to head lower, I’ll either abandon the plan to buy shares of BBD.B or just wait until the market settles down.


Last Thursday, the markets collectively demonstrated anxiety over North Korea. There was a big market sell-off and most gold stocks went up. It’s hard to say at this point if this is a reaction temporary in nature, or if it will signify the beginning of more and more selling due to fear. I’m going to make it a point to pay closer attention to the news and to how the market trades over the next couple of weeks.

Last week, I put together a big watch list of stocks that had promising charts. After last Thursday, only a few of them still look okay:

  • L.TO (Wait another few weeks to a month for this to properly set up)
  • H.TO (I own shares of this stock already.)
  • EXE.TO (I own shares of this stock already.)
  • TCW.TO
  • D.UN.TO (This is a REIT.)
  • CNE.TO (Needs a better setup unless you’re into aggressive, riskier entries.)
  • LIF.TO

Until you know what’s going on with the market, I don’t recommend buying anything. These stocks would be worth looking at while also observing the market. Watch how these perform against the market or their sector. If resilient stocks start to show weakness, then it’s usually a good sign that a weaker market will become even weaker.

There are different ways to play defensive during uncertain times. You can buy gold or shares of gold stocks. You can also buy consumer staples stocks. You can buy nothing or you can sell all your stocks. Whatever you do, don’t lose sight of what you want for your portfolio long term and think strategically.

Since the late spring, I’ve been unloading shares of stock. I’m either selling portions of my positions or all of them to either collect profits or reduce my exposure to the market. I have still been buying shares here and there, but not as actively as I used to. This has nothing to do with North Korea. Rather, it’s more about the market, which has been pulling back since the end of April. Maybe eventually, it will have everything to do with a conflict with North Korea. Regardless of what happens, I’ll let the charts guide me, not my fear.

 

 

 

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Summer Sideways

The week of July 24
  • I took no action for the RRSP. I will be depositing $150 this week because we’re entering a new month.

My next consideration for the RRSP was to buy shares of Bombardier (BBD.B.TO) as it was forming a nice base on the daily chart. It did, however, already break out last Friday on a good second quarter earnings report. I might have missed the move; however, if this forms a base from this breakout, then I will still consider getting some shares. I do already own this stock in my TFSA.

BBD.

BBD.B.TO price chart on freestockcharts.com


The market didn’t do much this month other than hit the levels it was at in November last year – this is what I was hoping for in order to have a substantial enough correction before going up again. If it comes down even more, I’ll be totally okay with that too.

I went through the 100 top weighted holdings of the XIC ETF. The financials look like they’re weakening. It’s hard to say if they’re going through a bit of a slowdown or if they’re on the way to a major plunge. Some of the stocks in the energy sector are starting to move above their bases while some of the other bigger energy stocks are still weak. It’s all very wait-and-see.

I don’t think the market will do much next month. I think this August, it will just be moving sideways. Summer is always a boring time to trade, but this gives you more time to do other things like work on better trade strategies before it gets busy in the fall, or get out and do more fun summer things. I really hope to find a great long-term gem in the next week or two!

The Transparent RRSP: Summer Reading

The Week of July 17
  • I took no action for the RRSP.

Instead, all week I’ve been stewing and brewing over something I wrote two weeks ago:

This week, I was actually considering buying shares of APH.TO for the RRSP, but it’s not quite ready yet. I know this one is capable of developing really good patterns. Once I see the trading range tighten, the selling volume lessen, and a pattern improvement on the daily and weekly charts, then I’ll pick the price I’d like to enter at and I’ll put in an order. I’ll give it another couple of weeks. If it ends up going up while I’m waiting for these things to align, I won’t be too concerned if I miss the run. It will either set up again later or I’ll find something else.

So, APH had a major breakout three trading days after that post. The setup I was identifying actually happened – just a lot sooner. I took my eye off the ball. So, I went with my next play. Last week, I bought ECN at $4.03 with a strong feeling that it was going to take out a previous low of $3.87, which it did only three trading days after I put in my limit order.

 

APH ECN

Price charts for APH.TO and ECN.TO on freestockcharts.com

 

I was right both times. The problem is, I’m left frustrated, mainly because I missed the stock that had the bigger move. You know what’s worse than losing money for most traders?

  • Exiting a stock too soon and leaving money on the table;
  • Missing out on something you knew was going to happen;
  • Overcompensating for either of the above two reasons.

I actually shouldn’t be frustrated. Let’s say I never noticed APH at all. I would take that ECN trade any day and I’d be okay with it.

Trading Psychology

Trading psychology is actually a ‘thing.’ I once had a trading coach – an infinitely kind, generous, patient, uber positive day trader based out of Colorado. He was really into trading psychology and he consistently banged the drum on the importance of visualization, meditation, and forming a strong belief system supported by mindful practice. He got me reading Psycho Cybernetics and books by Tony Robbins, among many other things. This reading took me down a path of self-exploration deeper than any other self-improving attempt I’d made in the past. This was when trading had changed me.

I learned that most of what drives our decisions is conscious, but so much of what drives our actual actions is subconscious. A common action for traders is to right a wrong. When we lose, we become prone to overtrading or overcompensating for something we should’ve done instead. We try to make back what we lost or make what we should’ve made on something we ‘knew’ would work. The reality is, there is no certainty in markets and everybody knows this. Nor is there total certainty about anything in life.

I finished reading Market Wizards, a great book featuring interviews with top traders in the U.S. These traders all had their own unique strategies, their special recipes for success. What they had in common, however, led to their success: tested strategies, experience, persistence, the need to manage their losses, and learning to deal with the uncertainties of the market.

In this book was also an interview with Dr. Van K.Tharp, a psychologist who focuses on the psychology of trading. It was so fascinating to read about how this psychologist understands the thought process behind trading and has dedicated his work to helping traders get past mental and emotional road blocks in order to achieve their goals for success. Of course, I ordered one of his books from Amazon. I’ll be reading Super Trader – Make Consistent Profits in Good and Bad Markets over the next few weeks as I also read Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

Am I upset about missing the move on APH?  150% yes. Have I missed other amazing opportunities in the past? Yes, hundreds of times. Has that ever stopped me from making other decisions with good payoff? No. Will I miss other great opportunities in the future? Of course. Will I take other great opportunities in the future? You betcha.

The market will always be there. Opportunities will always present themselves. I will try to be ready for them, but I can’t catch them all. Learning and growing from these experiences is part of the fun and adventure of trading. I know I’ll get over this missed trade with APH. I hope that things work out with ECN and that I’ll have another few opportunities to buy more shares of it. One day, APH will present yet another opportunity and I will do my best to be ready.

 

Money Talks

 

Recently, I did a presentation at the Toronto Public Library on investment basics. I had no idea how it would turn out, but I ran through my head a number of best and worst-case scenarios. It was better than I could’ve ever imagined.

I’d never seen a more diverse audience in age, background, and investment interests. Each person was comfortable enough to engage or ask questions – great questions, I might add. To all those who attended, I’d like to offer my deepest gratitude for your participation. This was the conversation I’ve been dying to have with people. This is the type of conversation more Canadians need to have with each other.

Today I’m going to share with you the questions that I can remember. I’ll add parts of my original answers, but I want to answer the questions more fully. These are in no particular order.


How long does it take for you to do your investment research each week?

Now, it’s a few hours a week, anywhere from two to six hours. But I also apply up to 20,000 hours of previous learning and experience. I hope that I can help others enough so that you don’t have to take as long as I did to learn how to invest.

I’d like to also add that many of my decisions result from bouncing ideas off my man, JP. He has put in the time and discipline to learn as well. We have the advantage of combined knowledge and experience. I share a lot of these very ideas in my weekly blog.

As much as I’d like to spend more time doing research and trading more actively, I would become more prone to micro-managing my trades. I’ve done a lot better with a more passive and hands-off approach.

How did you get a 70% return last year?

2015 was a terrible year for the Canadian market. The loonie and the Canadian economy were weak. We patiently waited for the market to stop going down. This happened around late February 2016. We looked for stocks that we knew traded actively and had suffered huge drops in share price. It was a very good time to get into the market. These opportunities don’t come very often.

We bought shares in TECK.B.TO, ECA.TO, BBD.B.TO when they were really cheap, and then in April, bought some APH.V (now APH.TO). We bought a few other stocks, but these few alone did very well after just a few months. We kept selling shares incrementally each time the stocks surged in order to secure profits (called ‘selling into the strength’), but they kept going up. We could’ve done much better had we just kept the shares in and moved up our stops (selling prices). It became a decision between banking on certain profits and waiting to see what will happen. We did a bit of both and we still have shares in all those stocks.

I don’t anticipate as big a return this year, unless the market has a major correction, soon after which there’ll be many more big buying opportunities (a bad and selfish thing to wish and wait for, I know, but…). My US portfolio, though, has been my big winner this year because I had the same idea with US tech stocks last summer.

One of the things I always say is that investors are always looking for new opportunities.

What ETF should I buy?

Many financial institutions create ETFs. Some are:

  • BMO
  • Horizons
  • Vanguard
  • iShares
  • Claymore

When doing your research, consider your investment objective – dividend income, market index performance, sector selection (like banking), fixed income, etc. Also consider the MER, share price, distributions, and frequency of distribution payments, to name a few things. You can look up this information on the ETF info sheet. For me, I only select among ETFs with higher trade volume.

Market ETFs can swing a lot in price because of the demand of traders in the market. So the ETF might be worth more (or less) than its actual value (NAV). Would it make sense to put some money in a market index ETF and some in an index mutual fund (which will be less prone to price swings)?

If you want to invest in the market, consider an ETF or an index fund – or both. The major distinction between these is the MER as it’s a lot higher for mutual funds than it is for ETFs; however, it can be more affordable to buy units in an index fund than it would be to buy shares in an ETF.

An actively traded market ETF can experience more volatility than the actual index it’s based on. Its price will vary based on the demands of buyers in the market. If buyers drive the price up, it’s possible for the ETF to be worth more than the net asset value (NAV) of its assets, so you’re paying a premium in share price. If investors are fearful, heavy selling can drive its price down below its NAV, so it’ll be trading at a discount. For index funds, the NAV is what it is after the market closes. At the end of the day, you shouldn’t notice a big difference between similar index funds, be it an ETF or a mutual fund. (If you do, the mutual fund will likely be underperforming because of the MER.)

What’s most important is that you’re 1) comfortable in what you’re investing in, and 2) you’re not paying too much in fees.

What do you think of mortgage-backed securities?

These have had a bad reputation as these were hugely responsible for the 2008 recession, but mainly because they were deregulated. They’re just bundles of mortgage loans that pay investors interest.

If you’re after real estate income, the REIT (real estate income trust) is great because it can pay investors their share of the distributions which will come from a mix of rent, mortgage interest, capital gains, as well as return of capital. You can also get real estate ETFs. Because of the mixed forms of investment income that come from these, they’re best held in registered accounts. Also, keep in mind the MER. I own a couple of these to add diversification to my portfolio. Other than the value of real estate happening in my own backyard, I don’t really follow the real estate market as much as I should.

What brokerages do you use?

I have opened accounts in the past with Disnat Direct and Questrade. I now have accounts with Virtual Brokers and Interactive Brokers. I’ve been with the last two for years.

What do you pay in commissions per trade?

With Virtual Brokers, I pay 1 penny per share. It’s less if the stock price is under $1. With Interactive Brokers, it’s 1 penny per share, but a minimum of $1 per trade. So if I buy 125 shares, I pay $1.25 plus any market data fees.

Both of these accounts were opened as margin accounts – trading on margin means you need to open with and maintain a minimum amount of cash in the account which allows you  3 times the buying power. So if you open with $25,000, your buying power is $75,000. To attract active traders, the commission fees are very low.

I also have TFSA and RRSP accounts with Virtual Brokers (VB). Thanks to JP’s slick skills in negotiation, we managed to have the same awesome rates extend from the margin account to our registered accounts. Often with registered accounts, you get charged a quarterly administrative fee. With VB, they do charge $25 plus HST unless your account has a minimum of $5000 in it.

I am an active FOREX trader. How should I be doing my taxes every year?

With an accountant. I did our taxes the first couple of years we started day trading. I had the advice of a friend who’s an accountant. She gave me samples on how to calculate the adjusted cost base of securities and their exchange rates, etc. It was actually a really good exercise in learning about taxation for the self-employed and how to factor in fees and expenses; on the other hand, it was a total headache. After that, we started using an accountant who magically does it all in a few days.

What is your take on robo-advisors?

They’re great if you don’t know what stocks or ETFs to buy, or when to sell them. They take away from you the inconvenience of guessing and researching and they make those decisions for you. I’d just be cautious about the frequency that the portfolio is rebalanced and focus on the ones that meet your criteria and charge the lowest fees. As you get more comfortable and savvy with reading the market, you should compare how your portfolio is performing against it and decide then if you might be better off investing in an ETF.

What is your advice for women and their investment choices, especially as they age?

Women have developed a reputation for being great long-term investors because we typically make conservative, less risky decisions. I feel that the financial markets have shifted so that being conservative could work against us in the long-term. Those traditionally conservative decisions, like owning a lot of GICs and low-risk mutual funds, could leave us with less money than what we actually need to have, especially as we live longer and longer. We should be thinking about how our portfolios need to keep generating income as we age. In my opinion, we should consider dedicating more of our portfolio to more medium-risk choices, like blue chip funds or stocks that pay us a dividend.

I know I have a pretty aggressive approach when it comes to making money, but I’m careful with most of my money and more risky with a smaller amount of it (or maybe that’s just what I tell myself and it’s more like half and half). A big part of my own early retirement plan is to live off of dividends, although I still want to make money on capital gains if I have to sell my shares to rebalance my portfolio.

What are good websites that could tell me more about Canadian securities?

I drew a blank – thank you to the audience members for their helpful input. Motley Fool Canada and Retire Happy were mentioned. I also think that Canadian Couch Potato and My Own Advisor are excellent.

You must have a really diverse portfolio?

Yes. It not only keeps things interesting, it spreads and reduces the risk factors within my portfolio. A lot of my trade decisions come from looking at the sector or industry first. That’s why the economy is a big part of my book. I have stocks and ETFs across many different sectors.

I risk very little for each stock, so I’m not worried if it turns out to be a dud (a rare occurrence). After a while, if I like a stock enough, I’ll buy more shares if there’s a new entry (called scaling in).

How do you research fundamentals?

I said I cared about two things: the price I got in at and dividends. I’ll admit, it was a shortcut answer. I don’t pay as much attention as I should to the fundamentals mainly because I learned about stocks from traders who studied price charts and used only technical analysis. When it comes down to it, even if a company’s fundamentals look good, if the stock price has gone too far up or isn’t trading well, I just won’t enter.

I use technical analysis for all my decisions and I apply very general guidelines when considering a company’s fundamentals. One day, I’d like to take the time to figure out how to use both forms of analysis to become an even better trader. For now, I rely on good charts that indicate signs that a trend is about to start; I look at the sector the stock is in; and I compare the stock to other stocks in its sector. Then I cross my fingers hoping that the rest of the market catches on and buys the stock up.


We all have different ideas on what we want to do with our money. There are so many different ways to apply strategies, even between people who have similar takes on risk and opportunity. What I think we all need to have is a general basis of knowledge and from there, we each can branch out and find our own approach to investing.

Thank you, TPL! I had a wonderful evening.

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Stock Picks

Action taken the week of May 29
  • I deposited $150.00 into the RRSP account. There is now $169.90 of available cash in the account.

I’m still waiting to see if the Canadian market will have a more definitive correction than what it gave in May. It could set up over the next few weeks/months for a new run, but I doubt it. The monthly chart looks like the market is inching downward. I still would like to see the market come down to the same level it was at in mid-November.

With the lower trading volume during the summer months, I put less emphasis on the market (as long as it’s not making any extreme moves that invite concern or attention) and I pay more attention to individual stocks that are getting a lot of action. I might casually pad my trading accounts now and then with extra cash so that should opportunities present themselves, I’m ready to take action.


Some Stock Picks

I found some stocks with nice charts, some of which are seeing a lot of recent action in price moves and trade volume. These have been trading better than the market – which doesn’t say much.

  • BBD.B.TO – I don’t like that Bombardier has gone straight up the last two weeks, but it’s been stronger than the market. I would prefer a correction on the daily time frame. It’s worth watching as the weekly chart is promising with a breakaway candle that held strong with increasing volume. I’ve owned this stock since early February 2016 and I can tell you that it’s not much of a mover. This can be a good thing when this stock experiences volatility because it’s less of a shock to your portfolio (unless you have a lot of shares and took on too much risk). While the monthly chart is very nice, the yearly chart is not inspiring.
  • BTO.TO
  • HGU.TO (This is a gold ETF.)
  • TD.TO
  • MG.TO
  • RY.TO
  • NA.TO
  • TA.TO – This is already in the RRSP. I was beyond busy this week and I wish I had a chance to look at the chart earlier this week. Depending on what it does next week, I might buy more shares.

If you’re not inspired to take on any risk, you can just watch these over the next few weeks and months and see how they do with or without the market. If you do feel inspired to trade, I’d recommend taking on less risk and buying fewer shares. I only say this because I still think the market will correct further and this could take down your stock and it could be a while before it starts to improve.

As always, please keep in mind the industry, sector, the company and its fundamentals, any recent news, upcoming earnings announcements, the amount of risk you’re taking, how it fits within your portfolio, your anticipated time horizon, etc. It’s always important that you look into what you need to in order to feel confident in your investments.

The Transparent RRSP: Book Review

No action was taken the week of May 1

I did an extensive search and didn’t find any good candidates for the RRSP. I think that once we see a more substantial correction in the market followed by some stabilization, we’ll see more options.


 

Market

The XIC, SPY, and QQQ ETFs on freestockcharts.com

 

Chart 1 is the weekly chart of the XIC ETF. It didn’t budge much last week and traded sideways for the most part. However, as you can see from the arrow I drew, it had some strong selling as indicated by the red trade volume bar.

Chart 2 shows the monthly chart of XIC. We finished close to where we opened. The arrow shows that overall for the month of April, there was more buying. As we’ve seen from a shorter timeframe of the weekly chart, there was heavy selling last week. Well, investors like a strong finish.

Already in this week alone, we traded lower than the month of April’s lows. This means investors are getting cautious and losing a bit of confidence. They’re selling shares, taking profits, and holding out on new opportunities – and if investors do trade, it might be with fewer than normal shares to reduce risk. No market can go straight up, so this isn’t anything to get too nervous about.

Chart 3 is the monthly chart of the SPY for the US market’s S&P 500 Index. The arrow identifies trading in March. You can see there was heavier selling in March. April had more buying than selling, however, it wasn’t able to trade higher than it did in March. All week it has been trading sideways. It might still have a positive May, but watch the volume and look for signs of less buying.

Chart 4 is the monthly chart of QQQ ETF for the Nasdaq 100 Index. The tech sector, especially the semiconductors, have been extremely strong since last summer. May will mean the seventh month up on a strong move. The arrow shows that April had a huge move up, but with lesser buying than in March. Are the Qs losing steam? We shall see…

There is naturally lower trade volume going into the summer months, starting in May. I will be keeping a close eye on the weekly and daily charts to look for more immediate signs of a reversal in the markets.


Last week I finally finished reading Michael Lewis’ hugely entertaining book, Liar’s Poker. I was sad to be done, but I feel like the story hasn’t ended because I’m living it through my own trading and from watching the markets. There is a story behind every trade and each investment decision. He skillfully addressed throughout the book how the human element of emotion is what drives markets.

This true story was about Lewis’ introduction into Wall Street as a bond salesman for Saloman Brothers, a securities firm. Every successful sale was done by convincing an investor that what he was selling them was going to be worth more later on. This sounds conniving and this book reads more like a humourous confessional as Lewis grew increasingly conflicted the more successful he became.

Even though this book focusses on the bond market, it translates the same way for stocks and any other security for that matter. Optimism is what drives the markets and allows them to thrive and continue. Pessimism morphs into fear and will make most investors regret their decisions and jump ship into something else.

All year so far, I’ve been providing you with analyses of the ups and downs of markets and making shorter-term projections based on price moves and the corresponding trade volume. These moves occur because of optimism and pessimism. The reason why I trade is because I’m generally an optimistic person and my long-term view is that the markets will always keep going up because I believe that most people are inherently optimistic. That is why, despite all these tales of glory and failures that come out of Wall Street, it’s still around. The markets aren’t going anywhere and I’m happy to believe that more of us are getting involved.

 

The Transparent RRSP: Post #15

Actions taken the week of April 3
  • I deposited $150.00.
  • I bought 25 shares of TransAlta (ticker symbol TA.TO) for $7.63 per share. This cost me $190.75 + 0.25 cents in commission which makes it $191.00 altogether.

This leaves me with $21.90 in cash. Penny stocks, anyone?

I bought shares of TA because the monthly chart caught my eye. The daily chart displays a long consolidation that shows this stock has been trading in this price range since late November. I had been checking this stock out for a few months now. I never took action because I wanted to wait for a better setup on the monthly chart. The weekly chart is a little sloppy, but I’m not as concerned because of its strong monthly chart.

ta

TA price charts on freestockcharts.com


I’ll just mention that for my TFSA, I bought some shares of TransAlta Renewables (a subsidiary of TransAlta, ticker symbol RNW.TO) at $15.73. I feel like I was late to the party for this one. I just kept missing the good entries. Its price moves are around $2 in range (as you can see from the arrows on the chart below). This stock has already moved up $1.30 since its last selloff in early March. If this goes up from here, it’ll probably stall at around $16.50. We shall see.

I’m not thrilled about the monthly chart; however, the daily and weekly charts, volume action, and monthly dividends made me want in. I like subsequent consolidations because it shows a lot of consensus among investors in price areas just below my entry. This is what traders call ‘support’ because if the stock does fall below my entry point, it’ll likely land softly around the $15.00 area where a lot of people have been buying shares at since January. I’m counting on strength in numbers to hold this stock up.

rnw

RNW price charts on freestockcharts.com

The market was positive this week. If nothing out of the ordinary happens (politically/economically), the market will likely trickle up for the rest of the month.

 

The Transparent RRSP: Market Analysis

No action was taken the week of March 27

I have been busy looking for good picks. I found one, but it’s too expensive for the RRSP. If I had more money in this account, I would have bought shares of Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE Inc., ticker symbol BCE.TO). Instead, I bought BCE for my TFSA. It had a nice setup of sideways trading starting from November with a tighter consolidation forming this week. It also pays a great dividend.

Bell is my service provider for internet connection. Thankfully, I don’t have the headache of dealing with them, JP does all of that. He has the patience and persistence required to get the service we need. This week he also managed to get our monthly rate reduced – yet again!

I’m not too concerned with how this stock moves in price as this is a pricier stock. If it goes up, then I’m glad I got some shares at a lower price when I did. If it goes down, then I’ll wait for a good time to take on more shares. Whether it goes up or down a lot in price, I will always wait for a setup before getting more shares. That’s just how I roll.


Now it’s time for some market analysis. I’ll use my favourite ETF, the XIC, to figure out what’s going on with the Canadian stock market.

xic

XIC stock charts on freestockcharts.com

1. The daily chart shows the market has been moving sideways for all of March. If you look at the trade volume, you can see that there has been a bit of a tug of war between buyers and sellers.

I believe this push and pull happens because people get nervous when the market feels a little toppy; as I said early on this month, it’s gone straight up for much too long. I wanted to finally see a bit of a pull back in the market because I expected people to be taking profits after a six-month run. I’d much rather take new positions after the market sanely resets itself than to follow a euphoric run that doesn’t stop or pause for air.

2. The weekly chart provides a cleaner and clearer view of March’s action. I like bigger time frames because they have less noise than smaller time frame charts. The candles on this chart cover a wider price range than previous candles. Wider candles mean more volatility and uncertainty. The volume week-to-week shows buying, selling, buying, selling, then more buying in this final week of March.

There could still be yet a further correction in early April. Whether this happens or not, what I’d like to see is the price range tightening up before the market goes up again. Tighter trading ranges typically mean greater consensus among investors. The volume week-to-week should also be mostly green to signify more buying is happening.

3. The monthly chart finally gave me the candlestick bar ‘pivot’ that I wanted. It went below February’s price low of $24.32 and down to $24.24 this week. I like pivots because they’re a more distinguished correction on a price chart. I like to think of them as a likely turning point. 

The arrow on the monthly chart points to a lot more trade volume this month than all the previous months. Interestingly, the last time it saw trade volume to this level was in March last year. This big volume bar is green, so there was mostly buying this month. Based on my rough observations in the market day-to-day, I saw a lot of accumulation action in the metals, particularly in gold.

___________________________________________

Will the market go down again? Yes, but I think it will in the summer. Historically, the market either stays where it’s at for April, or it goes up a bit more. This generally happens because of earnings season and it’s the investors’ final run at making profits before things slow down in the summer. Also, with all that buying this month, if gold makes a bullish run for it, this will also send the market up.

As the saying goes, “Sell in May and go away.” Something out of the ordinary will have to occur to break this typical cycle.

 

The Transparent RRSP: Post #13

No action was taken the week of March 20

This week felt like my own personal spring break. I’ve just been waiting for the market to pull back. When the market is uninspiring, I’m uninspired to do much in that department. When this happens, most stock charts look unpromising to me. Being patient can be boring; it is, however, a necessary virtue for a trader to have.

In my freed up time, I managed to catch up on some of my reading. JP and I typically have a number of books, magazines, and articles littered around our house. Depending on where I end up sitting, I pick up and read whatever happens to be right next to me. 

The last couple of weeks, I found myself focussing on three of the twenty or so items within my lazy reach. I’ve been reading Felix Martin’s Money: The Unauthorized Biography, Michael Lewis’ first hit book, Liar’s Poker, and Joseph Nocera’s, “The Ga-Ga Years,” an old article that was published in Esquire magazine in 1988. Interestingly, at one point this week, I found the subject matter of all three works intersecting at the topics of bonds, money market funds, and beating the market. To boot, they were all referencing the same point in financial history’s timeline: the years leading up to the stock market crash of 1987. I am not a fast reader, but by golly do I wish I could just read it all in one sitting right now. I just find people’s different experiences and ideas on money fascinating.

I have a very loosely formed concept of money that’s been evolving since I started working and saving it. While I can’t say that my understanding is advanced by any stretch, I can say that it’s deepening the more I learn about it and invest it. Money is one of those human inventions – a “social technology” as Martin calls it – that is fluid instead of concrete in its nature. Different forms of it, whether as a currency, a security, a financial product, or a means of exchange, can and will go up and down in value. As I spent more time watching the markets, it became increasingly apparent to me that these fluctuations are created by us. We get optimistic about the promise of growth or the next big opportunity. People pump money towards potential. As more people buy in, prices go up, cash runs low, and perceptions start shifting; as people start to cash out, fear of losing runs high. It’s amazing to think how the general agreement of our feelings about something has the power to change the market value of our investment accounts.

Beating the market is what every investor or fund manager wants to achieve. I’ve done it. I’ve also been horribly beaten by it. I learned that the best way to not get beaten by it is to sit patiently and wait out any fear or pessimism until optimism sets in again. Until then, I’ll just keep reading about the rise and fall of others instead of letting history repeat itself with me.