The Transparent RRSP: Stock Picks

Action taken the week of May 29
  • I deposited $150.00 into the RRSP account. There is now $169.90 of available cash in the account.

I’m still waiting to see if the Canadian market will have a more definitive correction than what it gave in May. It could set up over the next few weeks/months for a new run, but I doubt it. The monthly chart looks like the market is inching downward. I still would like to see the market come down to the same level it was at in mid-November.

With the lower trading volume during the summer months, I put less emphasis on the market (as long as it’s not making any extreme moves that invite concern or attention) and I pay more attention to individual stocks that are getting a lot of action. I might casually pad my trading accounts now and then with extra cash so that should opportunities present themselves, I’m ready to take action.


Some Stock Picks

I found some stocks with nice charts, some of which are seeing a lot of recent action in price moves and trade volume. These have been trading better than the market – which doesn’t say much.

  • BBD.B.TO – I don’t like that Bombardier has gone straight up the last two weeks, but it’s been stronger than the market. I would prefer a correction on the daily time frame. It’s worth watching as the weekly chart is promising with a breakaway candle that held strong with increasing volume. I’ve owned this stock since early February 2016 and I can tell you that it’s not much of a mover. This can be a good thing when this stock experiences volatility because it’s less of a shock to your portfolio (unless you have a lot of shares and took on too much risk). While the monthly chart is very nice, the yearly chart is not inspiring.
  • BTO.TO
  • HGU.TO (This is a gold ETF.)
  • TD.TO
  • MG.TO
  • RY.TO
  • NA.TO
  • TA.TO – This is already in the RRSP. I was beyond busy this week and I wish I had a chance to look at the chart earlier this week. Depending on what it does next week, I might buy more shares.

If you’re not inspired to take on any risk, you can just watch these over the next few weeks and months and see how they do with or without the market. If you do feel inspired to trade, I’d recommend taking on less risk and buying fewer shares. I only say this because I still think the market will correct further and this could take down your stock and it could be a while before it starts to improve.

As always, please keep in mind the industry, sector, the company and its fundamentals, any recent news, upcoming earnings announcements, the amount of risk you’re taking, how it fits within your portfolio, your anticipated time horizon, etc. It’s always important that you look into what you need to in order to feel confident in your investments.

The Transparent RRSP: Managing Doubts

Action taken the week of May 22
  • I reviewed my holdings in both my RRSP and TFSA. I am considering buying more shares of TransAlta Corp. (TA.TO) next week because I like the monthly chart.

A Glance at the Market

XIC may

The XIC ETF price history charts on freestockcharts.com

As you can see on the weekly chart, there has been mostly selling in May, which is consistent with the saying, “Sell in May and go away.” It would take more buying than all the selling that’s gone on all May for the market to trade above that. If the selling continues to consistently happen, even in small amounts, we’ll start to move lower.


When I’m in Doubt I Stay Out

I’ve been going over my portfolio and considering each stock that I bought and sold over the last year. First, I listed my primary and secondary financial goals for each one. If I had sold the stock or some of the shares, I made note of why I made the sale. Then I looked at the price history charts for each stock on my list and considered whether the stock’s performance was still in line with my intentions and goals.

Of course, my ultimate financial goal is to make money in any stock that I invest in. The major distinctions between each of them are determined by how I want to make money (dividends? capital gains? both?) and when (in the next few months? in a few years? in decades?). It was interesting to see how many of my holdings were initially intended for a swing trade after which I ended up wanting to keep them for much longer. This tends to be a pattern with me.

I’ll often buy a stock with this thought process: Let’s see how this performs. If it’s good, I’m keeping it. I might sell some and keep the rest. I might buy more the next time it has a good setup. If it’s a dud (a stock that sees zero action despite the market or its sector), then I’ll opt to sell it at break even or for a small profit and move on.

Selling at a loss is almost never an option for me. This only happens if, for whatever number of reasons, it becomes obvious beyond any doubt that the stock appears to be worth significantly less. I then have to ask myself if I’m willing to hold until that lower point and then wait for its recovery. If it does recover, at what price will it likely recover to before it goes up – or down – again? I rarely have to address the prospect of selling at a loss. This is not because I’m a decent stock picker. It’s because after years of trading, I saw that most of the stocks I sold at a loss ended up doing well weeks, months, or years after I bought them and sold them.

This basically means that it doesn’t matter if a stock has a good chart or not. It also doesn’t matter if you can time the market. More time in the market surpasses any well-timed entry. For a chart reader like myself, admitting this an act of hypocrisy! The price history chart is merely a tool that helps me understand the bigger picture.

Once I decide to invest, I rely on my ability to be patient. I believe strongly that patience is the key factor to growing a strong portfolio. Getting in and out of stocks frequently can really mess with your mind and potential to do really well. I learned that the biggest threat to patience is doubt. Doubt can be very powerful if you don’t trust the market, the world of investing, and yourself.

Whenever doubt starts to creep into my thoughts, I remind myself this: There is a finite amount of money and this puts a limit to the value that we place on things. Collective optimism makes things go up, but not forever. Collective pessimism leads to fear and this makes investors sell, but only until that fear exhausts itself. Humans are generally optimistic, and this is reflected in the overall market’s tendency to go up. I can’t always time everyone’s optimism or predict the end of all pessimism. If I get into a stock during its early signs of new optimism, it’s easier for me to exercise patience, even if it takes a while before market consensus helps the stock take off.

The main reason why I look at charts is because I can’t wait around until some analyst goes on TV to talk about a security that has been doing well already. While many investors might feel more confident in making investment decisions by waiting for an expert to give his or her opinion, it’s often too late for me at that point. I am more likely to act on doubtful thoughts if I know I got into a stock later rather than early on. I end up self-sabotaging my efforts by looking only for factors that confirm my doubts and fears. I’ve done this enough to know not to listen to such counter-productive thoughts. I’ve learned to trust my process and to stick with the strategies that give me the most confidence. Now, I only buy – and sell, even at a loss – when I’m confident in the factors contributing to the decision. I’m not afraid to make mistakes, but I don’t and won’t act on doubt.

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Just Watching

No action was taken the week of May 15 
  • I had been uneasy about the market all week, so my only play was to sit on my hands.

The last few months, I’ve been chipping away at making my trades easier to track, record, and analyze. This process was always interrupted by the market, attractive stock picks, sections of my portfolio that needed immediate attention, and addictive Netflix series. Each time I got back to where I left off, I found I disliked my method or format. You would think that after all these years, I’d have figured this out by now.

With summer coming, I expect the market to lighten up in volume and offer fewer opportunities. This means it’s a good time to get back on track with getting organized. I’ve been spring cleaning my house as well as all the portfolio information that I manage, making a bit of progress each day. It feels great to de-clutter my living space and streamline all the pertinent information for my trades. All I can do is keep at it until I’m in a place where I can function effectively on a consistent basis – and still watch my Netflix!


What a week! Here is my market analysis:
xic

The XIC ETF on freestockcharts.com

#1. The trade volume candlestick bars of April 24 and April 25 show an abnormal amount of buying.

With all that buying, there was such little price movement as you can see by the small size of the price candlestick bars. Big volume with little price movement often signifies a reversal. To trade beyond those prices would require even more buying. The following volume bars show that the market could not sustain so much buying. Another thing to note: we have not penetrated those prices since.

#2. What messy, volatile trading!

After April 25, there was more selling than buying. The candles show wider trading ranges, particularly the red bars, which depict heavier selling. I drew a square around this week alone to show you how, in such a short amount of time, the market can drop because of uncertainty, volatility, and buying fatigue.

On Wednesday (the day of that big red candle, third to last), the US market reacted to bad political news and this affected us (as well as many other markets). I believe that generally, markets are more prone to news when they’re already uncertain or weak. A strong market won’t be affected very much or will bounce back quickly. The following Thursday and Friday did show some buying. It will be interesting to see whether or not we can get back up to the previous trading ranges of the last two to three months.

#3. Lots of selling volume.

The trade volume over the last four weeks shows mostly selling. When you’re looking at longer time frames for longer-term buying opportunities, this situation is not tantalizing.

#4. First red monthly candle in almost a year!

We hit a new 2017 low with that one little day on Wednesday this week. What I like about the monthly chart is that it provides a bigger, clearer perspective.

The last time we saw significant selling volume was in June last year (remember the Brexit referendum?) and before that, the last major selling low was in January 2016. We’ve been going up for a year and a half. This new low is minor compared to the massive run we had. Way to go, Canada! If your portfolio didn’t do well last year, then maybe you should take a break from your advisor and consider buying a market index ETF – once it’s a good time to get in.


It will be interesting to see how we trade until the end of May. Whether we close positive or negative, this summer I would like to see a more substantial correction that comes down all the way back to where we were in November before going up again. For most folks – especially unrealistically optimistic people like me – this seems like a drastic thing to wish for. However, I believe that if you want a meaningful run in the market, you need a meaningful correction, not a one day sell-off like Wednesday’s.

I will be watching for how the US market impacts the Canadian market. The tech sector needs to take a break while the energy sector looks like it’s itching to make a run to the upside. I don’t think oil will ever trade back to its previous inflated levels, but I do think it will make a very short-term bullish move along with a short-lived rush in the gold sector. I don’t know if that would be enough to help the US market continue its upward trend. The Canadian market could still go down on its own, but it will to a greater degree if the US also makes a considerable correction.

 

The Transparent RRSP: Some Stock Picks

Actions taken the week of May 8
  • I think I bought 100 shares of Mariana Resources (MARL.V) for $1.70 per share.

This morning, I put in a limit order for the above values. I usually put in a market order which means buying a stock at whatever the market is currently selling the stock at.

When I perform a basic limit order, I put in the price I’m willing to buy a stock at. I like to think of it as this is the most I’m willing to pay per share for a stock, it’s my price limit. Limit orders can have different conditions going for it. My US margin account with Interactive Brokers lets me get a little creative with my orders. Today I put in a limit order because I have to go to work and can’t watch the market live.

If this order goes through, it will cost me $170.00 plus a commission fee of $1.00.

 

marl.v

Price history charts for MARL.V on freestockcharts.com

 

I don’t normally buy charts of stocks that gap up so much in price. Usually, gaps occur because of surprising news. If it’s good news and the stock gaps up, I don’t take action because it just committed a huge price move. Other investors who were in at a lower price will likely take some profits. Often, stocks that gap up go back down to where they started.

When you see a stock gap up, the best move to do is to watch and see how the stock holds. In this case, it held and consolidated for two weeks. The volume has remained intense compared to its previous trading volume. It’s been looking a lot better than the market.

This is a diversified mining company. Recently, the mining stocks are starting to heat up. So if the metals start to move, that will cause this one to take off too. I like this one because it’s been trading on its own page for a while now. I chose it for the RRSP because I think it would be a good hedge and it’s cheap. If it really starts to move in the right direction, I might treat half of it as a swing trade and choose to take profits if the charts indicate a big move is over. We shall see how it does.

This is one of those trades where a part of me says don’t do anything right now and another part of me says go with the momentum while it’s early. So I’m going for it. That is if my order actually gets executed!


I did a search and I have a few other stocks that might be interesting to check out. I’ll disclose that I already own some of these, but they came up in my search. I was happy to see that they were setting up for new entries.

  • Bombardier | BBD.B |$2.21
  • Encana | ECA | $15.56 – I’d watch this first. I think it needs to consolidate longer and shape up.
  • Timmins Gold | TMM | $0.63
  • Aritzia | ATZ | $15.99

Check these out, look at the charts, consider the sector, the company fundamentals, the stock price, etc. Ultimately, consider your risk tolerance and look into whatever you have to in order to feel confident in your investment.

“Should I get Snapchat?”

I hate taking selfies, but I love doing them on Snapchat. A few months ago, my work wife Hunter got me into Snapchat. It has since become a major form of communication between the two of us when we’re not working together.

Snapchat offers a lot of ridiculous photo/video filters (some of which aren’t appropriate), but I find most of them are just fun and silly. It’s like putting on a mask or a costume when do you a selfie on the Snapchat app. I get to become a different persona with each filter. My faves are the filters with a voice changer (you usually get a high-pitched voice or a deep monster voice). I enjoy doing impressions of people and Snapchat allows me to really get into character. If you don’t have the Snapchat app on your phone, you’re missing out! I realize it’s a pretty childish way to use up your time, but for me, Snapchat is a good outlet when I need to take a short break and just get outside my head (and into another).

 

20170308_110225.png

jeana2deal

 


 

I never buy IPOs early on – that is, until today. After a stock goes public, I usually wait until the dust settles and I see more signs that the price movement is less volatile and has leveled out. Lately, I’ve been doing stock searches, but with little luck in finding anything compelling. I’m not crazy about any of the sectors or even the market right now. The only good thing about Snapchat (ticker symbol: SNAP) is that it’s trading on its own page because it’s brand new.

So, I did what a fan with a trading account would do: I bought some shares.

 

snap

Snapchat’s price history charts on freestockcharts.com

I don’t know if Snapchat has ‘found a bottom’ yet or not as it’s too soon to tell. I took a small risk with just a few shares in case this stock were to go lower. I know the proper thing to do is to trade with more information. It’s better to wait for a pattern setup on the daily chart, but there are only five daily candles to work with so far, so I’m forced to look at the hourly and 15-minute charts. I used the 5-minute chart to time my entry, which is such a day trader thing to do.

After enough time passes and I see how SNAP performs against the market and the tech sector, I’ll buy more shares once I see my typical consolidation pattern setup on the daily chart.

 

The Transparent RRSP: Market Timing

Action Taken for the Week of February 28th
  • Deposited $150.00, giving me $150.48 of available cash in the RRSP.

At the time of writing, the net equity in my account is $1771.02. I’ve contributed $1750.00 in total to the RRSP. I’m up $21.01 so far. $2.10 of that is from a ZPR dividend payment received in early February.


The Canadian market has gone up six months straight. The U.S. market has gone up four months straight. On top of that, the trading volume has declined – a sign of the market running out of the steam needed to keep going straight up. There is nothing I would love more than for the market to have a little correction – that is, a little selloff – before going up again for another leg. I would feel more confident in making a new trade if this happened.

 

tsx

The S&P TSX Capped Composite Index Fund ETF chart on freestockcharts.com

 

 

spy

The S&P 500 ETF Trust chart on freestockcharts.com

 

Market timing means timing your trade entries and exits with the stock market moves. It’s more of a shorter-term strategy. When the market is on its way up, you buy. When it begins its move down, you sell.

A lot of people rag on market timing and its futility. I don’t blame them. It’s not easy to estimate and it’s impossible to be right and exact all the time. On CNBC, the analysts and traders always goad each other into making short and long-term predictions and when one is right over the other, they really rub it in! It’s pretty entertaining. It doesn’t really matter because, in the long run (we’re talking years), the stock market generally goes up as it has historically for decades upon decades. Why is this so?

Investors, by nature, are optimistic. You invest because you believe there’s a decent chance you’re going to make money. When optimism shifts to pessimism (due to recessions, world events, interest rate hikes, etc.), investors sell to take their profits or reduce their exposure during a downturn, or as in my case, hold off on making new investments.

So what happens if your market timing is off? Well, if you bought at the height of action before a turnaround, you’ll just have to wait until you’re back in the positive. No matter what, don’t panic. These downturns are more temporary in nature.

There are ways to be impacted less by market timing. The general goal is that over the course of your life as an investor, you’re accumulating assets and creating a diverse portfolio. If your portfolio is diverse enough, a part of it should be performing better than the other part of it during a market dip. When the market is strong again, most of your assets should be doing well. Then, you’ll eventually get rid of the ones that don’t meet your minimum expectations regardless the market and sector. After years go by, you’ll be beyond caring about market timing as most sound securities pass the test of time and should increase in value.

Why do I care about market timing? I simply prefer to take positions at the start of the uptrend. I learned to look for signs that a trend might be tiring out and if I do enter a trade, it’s with fewer shares and moderate expectations. I watch the market enough that I’m able to pay attention to where I’m positioning myself within the trend (at the beginning, mid-trend, near a top).

Before taking another position for the RRSP, I’m going to hold off until later in the month to see if there will be a correction, or if the market will take a bit of a breather that will be more apparent on the shorter time frame of the weekly chart. The only way I’d break this commitment is if I saw a perfect setup (to-die-for charts on all time frames, volume action, sector making a new move, and the market had sold off, yet the stock wasn’t affected).

This is actually a good time to look for stocks in the middle of setting up. That way, I’ll be ready with options when the timing is better.

 

 

 

The Transparent RRSP: Post #8

Actions Taken the Week of February 20th
  • Bought 24 shares of Canadian Life Companies Split Corp. (ticker symbol: LFE.TO) at $6.12 per share on Wednesday, February 22.
  • This cost me $146.88 plus 0.24 cents of commission.

I had S147.60 left in the RRSP so I couldn’t afford to buy 25 shares, which would have made it a better bundle to manage. When you buy shares in ‘odd lots’ (not by the 100s), you sometimes run the risk of your order not all getting filled at the very price you want; or if you pay higher commissions per transaction, you will get better value for your trade costs when you buy in round lots of 100 shares, 200 shares, 300 shares, etc.

Times like this make me feel like a teenager who spent the rest of her allowance too quickly (only here I didn’t blow it all on bubble gum and nail polish). I now have 0.48 cents left in my RRSP, which means it’s definitely due for a re-up. To stay true to my commitment of regular monthly contributions, I will deposit another $150 at the beginning of March.


I found this stock when I was perusing the ‘Canadian Common Stocks’ tab on freestockcharts.com on Wednesday morning.

lfe

LFE.TO on freestockcharts.com

 

Even though the monthly chart wasn’t my ideal setup, the daily chart was too nice to pass up. When you see a three-month long consolidation with that kind of volume action, you pay attention. This could still consolidate longer, which means I might have to sit uncomfortably for a while, but if this continues to tighten up, I will buy more either in my RRSP (when I’m better funded) or my TFSA – or both.

Also, this investment company is a portfolio of four major life insurance companies, so if you can’t afford to buy shares of those individual companies, you can of this one and receive a nice monthly dividend to boot!


Don’t forget the RRSP deadline of March 1, 2017!

Claim your RRSP deductions and get a bigger tax return!

And when you get your tax return, invest it!

Canadian Stock Picks – Feb 22

Here are some stocks with nice charts. None of these had all three perfect daily, weekly, and monthly charts, but they all had the kind of increasing volume that I always look for. Often in strong market environments, many stocks won’t have perfect setups, but they’ll do well.

Having said “strong market,” I’d like to point out, though, that the Canadian and U.S. markets have gone straight up since last fall. They’re due for a correction, which I’d like to see happen on the monthly charts, before resuming an upward trend. There have been short-lived corrections on the daily and weekly charts (I’m looking at the XIC for Canada and the SPY for the U.S.).

Stocks with nice daily charts
  • F.V – This trades on the TSX Venture Exchange.
  • IIP.UN.TO – This is a REIT.
  • BBD.B – This has gone straight up for five months on the monthly. I love the daily chart on this, but I’d like to see it trade sideways and consolidate for another couple of weeks. I already own shares of this stock.
  • LFE – This high volume consolidation is hard to ignore! The weekly and monthly charts are okay. I bought shares of this today.
  • MFC – I want this to shape up better on all time frames. However, the consolidation on the daily chart + high volume makes this very attractive.
  • MGW – This also trades on the Venture. Beautiful consolidation on the daily and weekly charts. I bought some shares today because the building volume is attractive.

Stocks with nice weekly and/or monthly charts

  • DMM
  • INV – This one’s daily is nice too, but I’d prefer it if it consolidated longer on that time frame.
  • PXX
  • RNW – The daily is shaping up nicely, I’m love the weekly, but I’m not crazy about the monthly.
  • LGO – The consolidation on the monthly chart is very nice.
  • ESN – This actually has nice charts on all time frames. My only hesitation is the volume activity on the daily. There is still a lot of selling, but if this stock holds its price around the 0.75 area for a bit longer and the volume indicates more buying, then I think we’re in business.

Remember, just because I said I bought something doesn’t mean for you to buy it. I have a higher risk tolerance than most investors. Please do your research and consider the industry, the sector, the company, dividends (or lack thereof), so that you can feel confident in your investment. Invest well, invest wisely!

Some More Stock Picks

A FEW MORE TSX STOCKS WITH CHARTS WORTH CHECKING OUT

Some nice-looking charts
  • TNX
  • TOT (Very nice daily and weekly. Monthly looks so-so to me.)
  • ZAR (We own shares of this for a swing trade.)
Watchlist material
  • ACQ – This is a little off-script, but I like the YEARLY chart the most. The daily, weekly, and monthly charts need to shape up a bit to get me interested.
  • GEI – Interesting weekly and monthly charts. The daily chart needs to tighten up, but watch this in case the consolidation pattern tightens up.
  • TRIL – The third week up in a row on the weekly chart makes me want to wait for a better consolidation. I would like to see this shape up on all time frames. I’m drawn to this because it’s got a lot of room to zoom up.

Most of these are energy stocks, so please keep this in mind. For me, most of these are more suitable for swing trades. As always, I recommend you do your necessary research to satisfy your own strategies and your trading plan.

If you have any stock charts you’d like me to check out, feel free to contact me through the contact form on this website.

Happy long weekend!